Asia Wrap: Expect Headline Ping Pong To Continue

Published 08/27/2019, 06:33 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
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Headline ping pong

While headline ping pong is expected to continue, there remains a high degree of scepticism regarding the sincerity of Trump's comments or even if the Chinese are willing to recommence with negotiations.

Asian markets followed Wall street lead, although trading higher they are well off best levels.

Bond markets did not take the trade bait as UST 10-yr remained bid and the yield curve inverted

Instead, bond traders are still contemplating the "bigger enemy" tweets from Friday when Trump painted both Powell and Xi with the same brush stroke.

Oil markets

Commodities remain under pressure with both Oil and Iron Ore down nearly 1% from MY highs. If markets don't really believe we are closer to a "trade" deal – look for a constant fade the hope trade especially on Oil and Gold markets.

Economic uncertainties are now doom and gloom realities which will adversely affect supply chains across various industries. I'm now starting to ask my self if the global economy has entered a recession. Frankly, this is not shaping up well for commodity markets and look for WTI and Brent to continue leading charge of the "Bear" brigade.

Iran wild card

Trump may be looking to win allies and no better to place to start than with French PM Macron who along with Japan, is attempting to broker US-Iran detente. While great for middle east political stability, allowing Iranian oil to flow again, which will be part of the nuclear agreement, will immediately send oil $ 5-10 a barrel lower.

Gold markets

Since Gold moves the beat of the US bond markets, with 10-yr UST's remaining bid and the yield curve inverted, Gold prices have remained firm in Asia.

The yellow metal is getting bid up in early Europe and has just taken out the fundamental $1534 level which looks like its shaping up to be the next battleground and significant pivot.

Overall if trade tensions remain elevated Gold can count on this issue as being flat out supportive.

From my seat, it sure feels like the risk roller coaster has crested any may be setting up for the next drop soon.

Currency markets

After the squeeze in risk yesterday, fixed income is bid again and safe-haven currencies are back in demand,

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