I am puzzled. USD/CHF has reached within a whisker of the 1.0037 high – but may be a Wave iii – or the potential of an expanded flat. USD/JPY appears to have completed a possible correction – but higher. Maybe this could still see another 3-wave move that would allow an expanded flat. These two can basically be reasonable. However, the recovery in EUR/USD ended in a complete mess. I’m tempted to suggest that we have seen a 16.9% retracement in Wave [ii] but that tends to conflict with the two pairs above. There appear to be too many conflicts between these pairs.
Now add GBP/USD. Well, I needed a minor adjustment due to the deeper pullback but basically, this still has a rally to complete.
So we’re getting very close to a reversal but with the biggest issue being in EUR/USD.
I am looking at, most likely, bearish USD/JPY and USD/CHF along with a bullish GBP/USD and therefore, somehow, we should see gains in EUR/USD but I wish I could feel more confident about it…
Certainly, EUR/JPY completed a zigzag at 132.83. It may have formed the Wave (b) for losses but should be driven by USD/JPY. Otherwise, a break above yesterday’s high will need a second zigzag.
Finally, the Aussie is in rather the same situation as EUR/USD except the structure was clear. It still has two options – very clearly a second zigzag (or a third) but any earlier break below 0.7639 would look bearish. This could be impulsive but there is a risk of an expanded flat.