The juxtaposition of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (ARCA:TLT) and its daily, RSI-Momentum Gauge at the June 11 low suggests strongly that the TLT recovery rally from 115.26 is only partially complete at Monday's high of 119.06.
My work argues for additional counter-trend strength into the 123.50 to 124.00 area -- equivalent to downside continuation into the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (ARCA:TBT) -- to the 46.50 area from current prices around 49.60).
With the FOMC policy statement and Yellen's press conference Wednesday afternoon, if my scenario continues to emerge, the bond-market's reaction to whatever the Fed decides to say or do will be positive -- i.e., will drive yields lower, bond prices and TLTs higher.
If the technical work is telling us to expect higher TLTs (lower TBTs), then Yellen & Co. is likely to back away from -- find excuses to delay -- the forthcoming rate hike for a while longer.
