Development in the US bond market is likely to be a key driver for most markets as it serves as a gauge of Fed tapering expectations. The US announces mostly tier-2 data next week, with durable goods orders and consumer confidence the main releases.
We expect euro flash CPI to show a further decline in inflation to 1.3% in August, from 1.6% in July. This may give some relief to bond markets. German Ifo and euro consumer confidence should see further increases in a sign of strengthening euro area recovery
This is a busy week in Japan, with the release of industrial production and inflation.
Global Macro and Micro Themes
Emerging markets have been in focus over the past week. While developments should be watched closely, we do not expect it to develop into another 'Asian crisis'.
A positive surprise in Chinese PMI gave much-needed support to sentiment and recovery in the US and Europe should eventually feed further into emerging markets growth. Stock markets corrected again on the emerging market crisis and rising US bond yields. While the Fed adds volatility in the short term, we are still bullish in the medium term. We look for the increase in bond yields to come to a halt soon.