Following Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election on November 6, analysts anticipate that the Trump administration may attempt to reset and rethink cryptocurrency regulation policies. This primarily involves the stance of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which increased its oversight of the crypto market during Joe Biden’s presidency.
Over the past few years, the SEC has initiated numerous cases, accusing exchanges and brokers of failing to register properly in line with securities laws. Crypto market participants are hoping for more clarity regarding the crypto assets classification and faster progress on legislation related to stablecoins and the structure of the crypto market as a whole.
Additionally, some expect proposals for the establishment of a U.S. national reserve in Bitcoin (BTC), in line with Trump’s campaign promises, as well as greater attention to developing mining in the U.S.
BTC To Reach $125,000 If US Becomes a Bitcoin Superpower
These expectations align with statements made by Jeffrey Kendrick, head of forex and digital asset research at Standard Chartered. He highlighted that Trump’s various pledges to support the crypto market — such as dismissing SEC Chair Gary Gensler, creating a national Bitcoin reserve, and aiming to make the U.S. the "crypto capital of the planet" and a "Bitcoin superpower" — could all serve as catalysts for growth in the cryptocurrency market.
Over the past two years, SEC's Gary Gensler has filed lawsuits even against major U.S. crypto players, including exchanges like Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) and Kraken, as well as market maker Cumberland.
Gensler is known for his notably critical stance on the crypto market, openly stating that it is rife with “fraudsters and scammers.” Even when the SEC, for the first time in a decade, approved bitcoin-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S., Gensler maintained that his position on the crypto market hadn’t changed. In July, Trump spoke at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, attended by over 20,000 participants, where he unambiguously promised to fire Gensler if he wins the election.
Standard Chartered also projects that Bitcoin’s price could reach $125,000 by the end of the year and $200,000 by the end of 2025. Previously, the bank’s analysts forecasted bitcoin’s price at around $125,000 should Trump secure victory.
Macroeconomics
In the short term, however, analysts note that the Federal Reserve's decisions and the broader macroeconomic situation will influence Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market.
“A move toward $100,000 in the coming year looks quite realistic regardless of the election outcome. Key growth drivers will include factors like the halving event, Fed rate cuts, and increased institutional presence in the market rather than political circumstances,” said Pauline Shangett, CMO at digital asset exchange ChangeNOW. “The rate cut...will add a sense of optimism. Riding this wave, bitcoin could approach $80,000 in November and test $100,000 by the end of December.”
Shangett also remarked that the U.S. election has provided a powerful growth impetus for cryptocurrencies, which could mark the start of a new bull cycle. She described the outlook for the next six months as “very optimistic,” pointing out that the halving, slowing inflation, and the potential return of a pro-crypto Trump administration all signal to investors that "capital may flow into crypto, and all conditions are set for growth."