The US employment report for August takes centre stage today. This is the final report before the 17-18 September FOMC meeting and is likely to be decisive in whether the Fed will initiate tapering at the September meeting. After the strong non-manufacturing ISM employment index yesterday, we have upped our forecast for overall job growth to 230,000 in August. This should keep the Fed on track to scale down its asset purchases in September.
Speeches by Fed's George and Evans - both voting members of the FOMC this year - could also be interesting. The two belong to different camps in the FOMC with Evans supporting an accommodative monetary policy while George has voted against the continuation of QE several times.
In Europe, we expect German industrial production to decline in July after a strong June, along the lines of yesterday's order data. UK industrial production is likely to show continued albeit modest expansion in July, in our view.
The G20 meeting will carry on today and at the top of the agenda is Syria. Russia continues to oppose military intervention, but in any case, a strike will await the vote in US Congress which is not scheduled until next week.
In Scandi markets, industrial production data are due from Norway and Denmark. The former is likely to show a decline in July, but should not change the outlook for a continued recovery in Norway. Danish industrial production will increase further in July, in our view.
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