Key Points:
- Cash rate expected to be cut to 1.50%
- Strong resistance around the 0.7640 mark.
- Parabolic SAR remains bearish.
The Aussie dollar had a rather volatile week, especially during Wednesdays FFR announcement. However, the AUD ultimately closed the week higher as a result of the weaker US Advance GDP figure and some slight improvement in the Australian PPI data.
As for this week, there are a number of vital fundamental result releases due, most notably, the RBA Cash Rate decision. Consequently, expect some strong swings in sentiment for the pair.
Whilst the AUD/USD had begun the week by recovering slightly in the wake of the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI figure, the pair’s direction became less clear mid-week. Specifically, the FFR decision saw the Aussie dollar swing between the 0.7564 and 0.7419 levels before ultimately closing lower.
As a result of the highly volatile session, doubts were raised that the pair could continue to recover as the week came to a close. However, by virtue of the unexpectedly low US Advance GDP figure, the AUD ended Friday strongly and closed the week up at around 0.7586.
On the technical front, the Aussie dollar appears to be running out of momentum as it reaches the 0.7540 level of resistance. Daily stochastics are already relatively overbought and the RSI oscillator is beginning to creep closer to the same conclusion.
Additionally, whilst EMA activity in now bullish, the daily Parabolic SAR reading remains firmly bearish which could mean that the AUD is about to reverse. As a result, keep a close watch on the 0.7571 support as, if broken, it could prove to be the point at which the pair begins a new downturn.
As for this week, the Australian Cash rate decision and subsequent RBA remarks will be in focus for the Aussie dollar. Current forecasts are predicting a 25bp cut in the rate which will likely see the pair erode some of Friday’s gains as there has been little pricing in of a cut.
However, this also means there will be limited upside potential if the RBA opts to hold the rate steady at 1.75%. This being said, keep an eye on the Australian Building Approvals result as this could provide some buying pressure if it comes in on target.
Ultimately, the Aussie dollar should be bearish again this week but it may have a little more upward momentum left to exhaust ahead of the cash rate decision. As a result, expect to see the 0.7640 level challenged before the RBA makes its announcement on Tuesday. However, be prepared for the event where the rate is held steady as this could prevent the pair from tumbling until later in the week.