Daily Analysis
12 May 2008
Current level-1.5389
The pair is in a downtrend from the short-term top at 1.6019. Technical indicators on the 4 h. chart are falling and convergent. After breaking below the 1.5361 support next important level is projected at 1.4966-1.50+ sentiment level.
The corrective construction from 1.5361 has resulted in renewing the downtrend, reaching low at 1.5283. Unfortunately there is no a reliable support all the way down to 1.50+, so the expected reversal will be confirmed only above 1.5601 resistance.
As expected, the rebound from 1.5283 appeared to be a corrective one, so after reaching an intraday high at 1.5489, the pair has sharply lost ground, falling down to 1.5363. Just a minor consolidation is unfolding upwards from 1.5363 and we expect it to be limited to 1.5420 before renewing the slide towards 1.5221.
Sell rallies to 1.5412 with a risk limit above 1.5437, or sell a break below 1.5375 with a target 1.5291 in both cases.
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Daily Analysis
12 May 2008
Current level - 103.61
The pair is in a corrective uptrend from the 95.75 short-term bottom. Technical indicators are rising slowly and the upmove is dynamically supported at 102.36. The inner structure of the rise is by all means a corrective one, so from a larger point of view the overall downtrend from 124.14 is not over yet.
We still expect a downtrend to emerge, for a break below the 99.86 dynamic support, en route to 95.75. Nevertheless the uptrend on the lower time-frames is still intact, so only below 100.82 will be confirmed, that the outlook is totally bearish for 95.75.
Nice sell-off from last week's high at 105.59 and it has broken below the rising dynamic support, projected at 104.03, so there is a reason to believe, that probably the whole corrective structure since 95.75 is already over. Our intraday target at 102.68 was fulfilled with 102.63, so now a consolidation is unfolding, aiming at 104.12 and 104.45, with the purpose to correct the sell-off from 105.59.
Stay on the long side with targets above 104.12 and a risk-limit at 103.47. More broadly speaking, we will be ready to sell 104.26 if seen, with a stop at 104.49 and targets below 103.36.
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Daily Analysis
12 May 2008
Current level- 1.9491
The pair has reversed at 1.9337 and the technical indicators are rising and convergent. Trading is situated between the 50-day MA, projected at 1.9741 and the 200-day SMA, at 1.9925.
After the break below 1.9782 crucial support it became clear, that the bigger corrective construction from the 2.0397 top is not yet finalized and new bottom below the 1.9599 low is to be expected. This doesn't change much our short-term view (for one more leg upwards to 2.0397 and 2.0531), but has postponed our expectations for a forthcoming test of the 2.0196 resistance zone.
Our target at 1.9446 was filled precisely, so we're out of the Friday's shorts, waiting to attempt longs on 1.9431 (if seen, with stop below 1.9367), or on a break above 1.9539 with risk limit below today's low and targets in both cases at 1.9783.
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