In my 2025 Outlook, I picked AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) Pharmaceuticals as one to watch this year.
Here is what I wrote:
AbbVie (ABBV) AbbVie primarily works in immunology, oncology, neuroscience, eye care, and virology. It is also the parent company of Allergan (NYSE:AGN), the maker of Botox. Botox is one of the most well-known and widely used aesthetic treatments globally, primarily known for its cosmetic use in reducing wrinkles and fine lines. Hence, it fits in the “Vanity” trade. The monthly chart shows the correction to the 23-month moving average with huge support above 160. Note-pays a dividend
Incredibly, the low on April 9th was 164.39.
ABBV held the support level on the 23-month chart and the January 6-month calendar range low.
If I liked it in December when I wrote the Outlook, and the tariff flush brought the price right down to major support, which held,
Do I still like the stock?
Long answer is that
- While a close over 178 Monday confirms the reversal pattern, ABBV still well underperforms the SPY
- It is in the crosshairs of pharma tariffs
- There are several hurdles of resistance to cross: the January 6-month calendar range high, the 200-DMA and well above, the 50-DMA.
- The phase is distribution which is better than bearish.
- In Real Motion, we are close, but not quite over the Bollinger bands for a mean reversion trade
Nonetheless, I like the support level, especially since the November 2024 low shows a potential long-term double bottom.
If we go back to July 2024, the low was also around 163-164.
We KNOW the risk.
I might consider a small position should the reversal confirm as such.
However, if ABBV has truly made a bottom, we should see it clear and close over 182.
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
S&P 500 (SPY) Watch 520-540 range
Russell 2000 (IWM) 180 pivotal-193 resistance
Dow (DIA) 400 pivotal
Nasdaq (QQQ) 440 support 468 resistance
Regional banks (KRE) 50 to clear
Semiconductors (SMH) 205 is a place to clear
Transportation (IYT) Must get back over 63-64
Biotechnology (IBB) 115 support 120 resistance
Retail (XRT) 64 key to hold. 69 resistance