Brent Oil prices soared and bounced back at 73$ per barrel due to attacks on Saudi Arabia’s crude oil and NGL pipelines which pump oil from eastern coasts to Red Sea. It was the most important path for Saudi Arabia to pump oil from Persian Gulf to Red Sea and the attack rises concerns about growing tensions in Middle East and the future of two oil giants which could lead to global supply shortage especially exporting oil to European consumers. In December 2018, OPEC members agreed to cut 1.2 Million barrels per day of their production level to balance supply and demand while American producers hit new highs in production. but oil markets may have more shortage and supply wipe offs.
Indeed, oil markets can expect 1.75 to 1.8 Million barrels per day cuts thanks to Venezuela shortage and Iran oil sanctions. Iran oil exports dropped to 1.1 Million barrels per day after recent sanctions which means 400000 barrels of Iranian crude oil wiped off from the market. So, it gives OPEC members more room for further cuts. But most of OPEC supply cut will withdraw with U.S shale production.
U.S oil production hits a new record of 12.1 Million barrel per day which is the highest level of production since 1970 according to EIA reports. On the other hand, U.S domestic demand stands at 19.99 Million barrels so that U.S recent production level can cover 60.5% of its domestic demand, While U.S production level before 2018, could cover up 57% of its domestic demand. Therefore, U.S oil imports will drop 500000 barrels per day which probably may put the pressure on global demand side. Shale producers have found the best ways to increase efficiency in extracting oil and it will bring them lower production costs. Besides, huge oil wells in Mexico start production so that low oil prices cannot stop them from producing. Shale production cost stands below 30$ per barrel which means higher prices will persuade them to rise production. Thus, U.S oil production growth will continue in 2019 retaining pressure on oil markets and it may reach 12.9 Million barrel per day through 2020.
OPEC members are trying to prevent oil prices to collapse through supply cuts and making a solid support under prices. OPEC members, especially Saudi Arabia, have the vision to control their production to achieve 70$ to 75$ per barrel price levels but they don’t want to lose their market share to American producers. Any price levels below 45$-50$ per barrel won’t be profitable for OPEC producers and it will probably bring serious budget deficit for Oil-based economies like Saudi Arabia and Iran. OPEC production level is now standing at 32.5 Million barrels which is 180000 barrels more than the level in 2015. This will help OPEC members to cut more supply and maintain their targeted price level , however it looks difficult to stand against U.S shale boom. So, supply swings will probably cause volatility in the market and oil markets will have fluctuations in 2019 but it may not experience collapse in prices.