There is a lot of semi-important Swedish data out next week. We estimate PPI continued to fall in July on the back of SEK appreciation, as PPI is a mixture of domestic and export prices. Household lending growth surprised by increasing in June. As property price increases have accelerated in recent months, lending growth may very well have accelerated again in July. The trade balance has improved over the past two months, possibly bucking the long-term deterioration. Still, it seems likely the July figure will show a correction. August manufacturing PMI is set to rise slightly on the back of German improvement.
We discuss the risk of a correction higher in EUR/SEK
In Norway , the week's most important release is July retail sales. We expect an increase of 0.3% m/m in July, which would suggest that private consumption also made a strong start to Q3.
Also coming up are jobless data from the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) for August. We predict that the jobless rate will fall to 2.7%, mostly for seasonal reasons, with gross unemployment down 500 people m/m. This is our preferred measure of employment and has fallen by more than 1,000 people m/m over the past three months. Our forecast thus assumes a slightly slower reduction in unemployment and the labour market could start to look surprisingly tight if this does not materialise. The week also brings PMI data for August. The improvement in July was surprisingly strong and may have been due to issues with seasonal adjustment.
In Denmark , we have the full national accounts for Q2.
In the fixed income market, the focus will be on the mortgage refinancing auctions that continue with the floater auctions.
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