Bitcoin is trading in a 1% range with no pronounced momentum near $60,000, losing 0.5% since the start of the day but up 0.5% to levels 24 hours ago. Cryptocurrency market capitalization rose 1% to $2.62 trillion overnight, adding to altcoins.
The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index added 2 points to 54, remaining in neutral territory. This shift in sentiment contributed to a prolonged, more than a month-long slump in the cryptocurrency market in September and May. But despite the deep correction, the market has remained in a long-term bullish trend this year.
In 2018, the onset of crypto winter was only after BTC/USD and ETH/USD sank below their 200-day moving averages. They are now at $48,000 and $3,800, 20% and 10% below current levels, respectively. Above these levels, it only makes sense to talk about corrections within a bullish trend. These indicators are still valid now. Sharp and high volumes falling under these lines will be considered the beginning of the new crypto winter.
Looking more locally, the latest consolidation in the crypto after a downward momentum is hardly a good sign. We pay attention to the cautious approach of bulls, which are not in a hurry to buy and waiting for more precise signals for buying. The graphical picture is quite problematic at the moment: bitcoin is drawing its fifth consecutive daily decline candle, and each intraday low is lower than the previous one.
On the data analysis side, bitcoin on the daily charts keeps looping around its 50-day moving average, which has been assuming the role of a trend indicator for a few years now. A collapse and consolidation below that line (today passes through $59,400) risks triggering an even bigger capitulation by buyers, who may rush to lock in profits after the rise in October.
The picture for Ether is slightly more optimistic. By the end of the day yesterday, ETH/USD had fumbled for support from buyers, holding it above the $4,000 level. This former resistance level now serves as solid support for traders relying on tech analysis.
However, a wider range of investors would probably prefer to see reliable signs of price gains and not rush to buy near the critical line. Bulls and bears are now clearly aware that opponents may be holding plans for a new attack near important levels.
The FxPro Analyst Team