A Change In Fortune For The Aussie And Kiwi

While the aussie is boosted by much stronger than expected employment data, the kiwi was weighed down by the RBNZ statement. The job market in Australia grew an impressive 71.5k in February versus expectation of 10k. That was the biggest rise since 2000. Prior month's figure was revised up to 13.1k, from 10.4k. The details were also strong, with gains in both part-time and full-time jobs, by 17.8k and 53.7k respectively. The participation rate also rose to 65.3%. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.4%, original expectation standing at 5.5%. The RBA mentioned that current rate is appropriate, but inflation outlook allows for further cust if necessary. Based on the solid job market data, there shouldn't be much need for the central bank to cut rate any time soon. The AUD/USD breached 1.0374 resistance on today's rally, and it looks like further strengthchould be seen in near term back to resistance zone at around 1.06 level.

The RBNZ left rates unchanged at 2.50% as widely expected. Governor Wheeler said that the central bank expects to "keep the official cash rate unchanged through the end of the year" amid an "uneven" economic recovery. The central bank also said that “if the exchange rate rose for reasons not justified by New Zealand’s economic fundamentals, all other things equal, this would lead to a lower-than-expected OCR.” The RBNZ is indeed opening the door for rate cut should its dollar appreciate more than expected. The NZD/USD dipped to as low as 0.8161 after the release, and remains soft there. Technically, considering that daily MACD is negative for a while and the NZD/USD is staying well below 55 days EMA, rebound from 0.7457 should be finished at 0.8533. More importantly, a consolidation pattern from 0.7370 has also completed with three waves up to 0.8533. Near term outlook will now stay bearish as long as 0.8349 resistance holds. Current fall from 0.8533 would likely extend back to lower trend line resistance (now at around 0.76) in medium term.

NZD/USD" title="NZD/USD" width="600" height="600">
In Japan, main focus in on the confirmation of the nomination of BoJ governor and deputies. The lower house, with ruling LDP holding majority, has endorsed appointment of Kuroda as governor and Iwata and Nakaso as deputies. The upper house will vote tomorrow at 10am Tokyo time. The main uncertainty, Iwata's appointment, should also be cleared after Your Party, Japan Restoration Party and the New Renaissance Party voiced support yesterday. Together, Prime Minister Abe should have secured enough vote to pass the nomination. Outgoing BoJ governor Shirakwa will step down on March 19.

Looking ahead, SNB rate decision will be a major focus today. The central bank is expected to stick to the policy of low rates and holding the EUR/CHF 1.2 floor through 2013 and even longer. SNB chairman Jordan has mentioned last month that the Swiss Franc remains at "a very high level" and it's "quite far away from the exit" from the EUR/CHF floor. Volatility in the EUR/CHF has been very high since the start of 2013, as it's easily boosted up by improving confidence in the eurozone. The pair has also dropped sharply on political uncertainties in Italy. Nonetheless, the volatility is making it quite tradable now, a definite improvement on last year's tight range trading.

Also, US PPI, jobless claims , Eurozone employment, Canadian capacity utilization and new housing price index will be released.