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A 20-Year Look At The 30-Year Treasury Bond

ByDoug Short
Published 11/22/2013, 02:32 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
BP
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In my periodic Treasury update, I focus primarily on the 10-year yield and include a look at the 30-year fixed mortgage rate. The 10-year Treasury Note has been around for a long time. The FRED database includes monthly data for the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate going back to April of 1953. Yale professor (and Nobel Laureate) Robert Shiller's university website includes an Excel file with the monthly 10-year yield going all the way back to 1871.

What about the 30-year Treasury? Earlier this week I received an email from Floyd Flanagan featuring an interesting pair of monthly charts, courtesy of Stockcharts.com, for the 30-year Treasury Bond going back 20 years. The left side below shows the 30-year price index, the right side the yield. Floyd has annotated the two with support and resistance.
30-Year Bond: Price Index (left) Yield
Floyd included this comment:
Flanagan On Price And Yield
Here is a closer look at the 10- and 30-year daily closing yields since the onset of the Financial Crisis. Both hit historic lows in July of 2012. Subsequently the 10-year hit an interim closing high of 2.98% on September 5th. The 10-year hit an interim high of 3.90% ten sessions earlier and matched that high this past Wednesday, dropping one bp at yesterday's close. The 10-year closed yesterday 19 bps below its interim high.
10- And 30-Year Yields
These will be interesting to watch in the days and weeks ahead.

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