3 Numbers to Watch: US Surveys, PPI and Jobless Claims

The US certainly dominates proceedings today with both PPI and jobless claims on tap, not to mention a couple of regional Fed surveys and TIC flows. Furthermore we have both Spain and France selling bonds at 09:30 and 10:00 GMT, respectively. Spain will attempt to sell 3-, 4- and 6-year bonds while France will try to sell 2-, 4- and 5-year bonds.

Feb. US producer prices (12:30) to rise short-term, but trend is down: Yesterday's report on the Import Price Index showed a deceleration in inflation to 5.5% y/y from 6.9% a month earlier and a peak of 13.7% in July 2011. Given our expectation that the US will continue to muddle through to the tune of 2% GDP growth this year and fading effects from temporary price shocks last year we see inflation headed somewhat lower from here. The correlation between import prices and the PPI is understandably high and points to a deceleration today even if consensus looks for a robust +0.5% m/m.
US Jobless Claims (12:30) to improve again? While momentum has subsided somewhat, this year's improvements in Initial Jobless Claims have so far proved sustainable, with the 4-week moving average hovering around 360,000; down from 400,000 just four short months ago. This has also been reflected in the US Employment report, which beat expectations yet again last Friday. Nevertheless we still would like to see a couple of months' more worth of data to determine to what extent - if at all - seasonal factors have made data look better during the winter months than it really is. We have won a battle, but not yet the war. Consensus looks for 357,000 from 362,000 last week.
US Mar. Empire Manufacturing (12:30) and Philadelphia Fed. (14:00) to show healthy expansion? The first two regional Fed surveys for March will be released today, with consensus expecting mixed results, but results nevertheless which point to expansion. If the two surveys realise consensus' forecasts of 17.5 and 12, respectively, it is indicative of an ISM Manufacturing Index reading around 54.4 (compared to 52.4 presently).