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3 numbers to watch: housing starts, import prices, & Beige Book

BySaxo Bank
AuthorSaxo Bank
Published 04/12/2012, 05:16 AM
Updated 03/19/2019, 04:00 AM
MAR
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The release of the anecdotal Beige Book from the Federal Reserve is among the key events today, but before we get to that we have Housing Starts from Canada and the Import Price Index from the US.

Mar. Canadian Housing Starts (12:15 GMT) to stay range-bound: Though the Canadian housing market has so far managed to escape mostly unharmed from the global recession, the sector is nevertheless struggling to move decisively higher. Permits rose 3.9% in the twelve months through February with starts up 5.4%. This suggests that there is not much upside potential in the immediate future and consensus is in line with the assessment, targeting 200,000 starts, down by 1,100 since February.
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Mar. US Import Price Index (12:30) to continue to decelerate: The fading of temporary factors has seen inflation trend lower in the US and we look for a futher deceleration in March. The Import Price Index, which is correlated to the Producer Price Index (out tomorrow at 12:30), is expected to gain 0.9% m/m, but drop to 3.4% from 5.5% y/y. Though gasoline remains high for the year, commodities overall are not too strong, which points to further weakness in the various price indices in the coming months.
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US Fed's Beige Book (18:00): The Beige Book, the anecdotal description by Federal Reserve Banks of economic conditions in the districts, is expected to show a US economy which is heading into lower gear - but not reverse. Expectations for 1Q GDP are currently running at 2% q/q (annualised) and we expect more of the same in this second quarter. (Note: a bit later in the evening (21:30) Fed vice chair Yellen will speak about "The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy" in New York.)


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