2013 Annual Wrap: Leaders And Laggards

As 2013 rapidly draws to a close it's worth taking a look back to compare which markets one should have been trading:


AUD: The Australian Dollar has not had a great year and unfortunately I don't see this getting much better going into 2014. It leads the top 3 places in the 'biggest loser competition' this year selling off aggressively against USD, NZD and CHF.

CAD: The Lonnie has done full circle this year by circle this year - after a promising start but quickly returning all gains we now finish -6% down for the year. We have recently broken beneath January's lows and this signals further downside as this was a key low. Technically the CAD remains Bearish on the Primary Trend and I see no reason to change this view for some time.

CHF: To the relief of SNB they manage to keep EURCHF above 1.20. However many are speculating a large decline in the event the SNB remove the Peg, which is definitely something to watch out for in 2014.

EUR: The Euro Finishes the year considerably more bullish than many expected back this time last year. However the Euro Bears are always quick to make their voice heard amongst the lingering fear of inflationary issues hovering over Europe. My view is Euro will have a bad year in 2014 so EURUSD shorts will be something to watch out for.

JPY: The Yen has provided some of the better opportunities for traders this year, putting EURJPY and CHFJPY at the top of the leader board this year. I believe JPY will continue to weaken throughout 2014 as we have witnessed a multi--decade (and all-time) low.

GBP: Whilst the British Pound has finished off the year with a bang I don't see 2014 continuing this trend. Carney recently announced that a strengthening GBP will undermine the

NZD: The Kiwi has been very choppy throughout the year with the Weekly Charts showing lots of confusion to the general direction. However across individual currency pairs has provided some excellent opportunities for traders throughout. My view is we will see a more bearish structure in 2014 as the yearly high is technically a lower high to 2012.

USD: Year to date the Dollar doesn't appear to have done anything when you see it has only appreciated by 1.08%. However any trader will tell you it has certainly seen its ups and downs and with vengeance. I see 2014 being a much brighter year and more directional, celebrated with a Bull party.

COMMODITIES:
METALS: Gold has been one of the bigger disappointments of the year as many have been calling for the low and for it to break to new highs. Repeatedly... Despite this, Silver depreciated by a greater percentage making it even more painful for Bullish Silver investors. Technically I am still bearish on these markets and believe there is still plenty of room for further disappointment.

OIL: WTI has seemingly created a multi-week low so Q1 of 2014 looks to be a bullish one. Brent is not so clear cut and has been technically correcting since 2011. However in the grand scheme of things the charts appear to be more bullish than bearish.

INDICIES:
With US Equities continuing to break to new highs the bulls have managed to silence the last of the bears form the GFC. Whilst the FED's QE has obviously leant a helping hand many speculate a decline in Indices as soon as this program is eventually wound down in 2014.

The Nikkei up around 50% is clearly the biggest mover of 2013 and going into 2014 I do not see any reason to be calling a top any time soon.

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