EUR/USD: Short Term Bearish Momentum, Long Term Direction Unclear

Published 03/26/2014, 05:11 AM
Updated 03/05/2019, 07:15 AM

Short-term momentum for EUR/USD is currently, but that is not stopping yet another mysterious rally yesterday which happened during New York afternoon - just like the one seen on Monday. As the rallies are definitely not fundamentally inspired (e.g. no news announcement during the period) and is clearly not inspired by any risk on/off flow (US stocks were relatively stable during the period), it is highly unlikely that the bullish momentum will be sustainable, and hence the decline which occurred subsequently is not a surprise.

Hourly Chart

EUR/USD Hourly Chart
With Stochastic indicator showing a bearish cycle right now, coupled with the fact that prices failed to climb above the descending trendline, the likelihood of 1.3815 support breaking increases. 1.38 is the obvious immediate bearish target, but judging by yesterday's bearish momentum a push towards 1.376 is within reach as well and we could even see further bearish extension if bearish momentum have yet to hit Oversold region.

Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart
Daily Chart favours neither bulls nor bears right now. Firstly, the break of 1.8315 should have triggered stronger bullish response but that didn't happen, but the same charge could be levied against bears when bearish follow-through was limited even though the breakout has failed. Perhaps the biggest issue right now is that it's hard to determine whether current price action is acting as a confirmation for the bullish breakout, or a confirmation that the breakout has failed as the point of reference for breakout can be as low as 1.38 and stretches all the way to 1.39. As such, we will need to wait for price action to develop further before there's directional clarity.

Original post

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.