Softs Comments

  I tried to buy cotton last Friday.  My price was not reached during the day session.  This market is moving at a "snail's pace" but it is working higher each day.  Today it is finally getting over the 20 day ma on the daily chart.  Whether that will get it going or not, I don't know.  The report tomorrow should determine follow through or not.  Both long term charts have buy signals.  I'll try to buy it again tomorrow.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 103.47, up .13.

NOV ORANGE JUICE:  In my last Update I pointed out that it needed to close over 155.00 in order to have a strong rally.  It finally accomplished that yesterday and today it took off.  The high 166.40!  It almost reached the 150 day ma on the daily chart.  That seemed to cool its enthusiasm and it backed off.  Just looking at the daily chart, I can't figure out what the real direction is!  Long term is more telling.  It is holding the 150.00 support on both charts.  The weekly is triggering a buy this week.  There could be more follow through to this rally.  It will reach resistance at 175.00.  Closed 161.45, up 4.70.

DEC COFFEE:  An inside day yesterday triggered a sell today on the daily chart.  Unlike many markets that have been consolidating for rallies, coffee cannot seem to do the same.  On the monthly chart it has reached the 20 day ma.  The same indicator that has given support to several markets recently long term.  The weekly looks like the current downtrend could have more to it though.  Just watching.  Closed 223.40, down 2.90.

DEC COCOA:   Last time I pointed out that the 27.00 level was the area to watch.  Getting over that could suggest that the breakout to the downside from earlier consolidation was a false breakout.  The 27.00 level held the market yesterday and it sold off aggressively today.  On the weekly it has been holding around 26.00 for four weeks.  That was key in September of last year as that support produced a major rally to 37.75.  What concerns me now is that it is struggling too much to hold that support this time around on the weekly chart.  Last year it could not get under 26.00.  It has this time around even though it has not closed under that on a weekly basis.  Closing under it would be negative and could push cocoa to new lows.  Closed 26.04, down .52.

MAR SUGAR:  Stops were reached yesterday.  I want to short it again but there is too much conflict between the long term charts now with the recent action.  Also on the daily chart, sugar is wedged between the 100 and 150 day ma.  There could be more to the rally.  Watching closely.  Closed 25.94, down .34.