US Small Cap 2000 (RUT)

buy

I mentioned on May 24 EOD before the holiday that there's more gaps to fill on the daily chart, and you can see we're about there. WaveTech daily and 2-3 hour charts indicate more weakness tomorrow before bounce around FOMC Wednesday. WaveTech daily did not forecast these last three days correctly until after session open, and that's not helpful, although as I wrote earlier today and yesterday, the 2-3 hour charts have been reliable not just for that day but a good portion of the next session, something I haven't always seen. Like on Wed. when the market soared, the daily chart still indicated more upside Thur. and Fri, a down Mon. and higher high on Tues.-Wed. before a decline in momentum. In contrast, the 2 and 3 hour chart momentum and moving avgs. indicated a big decline on Thurs., which materialized, and yesterday afternoon, they too indicated more weakness today, and they say the same for Monday. So I never exited my IWM (or TLT) put options in case the intraday charts proved correct. Similarly, I remember on Tues. afternoon, the intraday pointing to a stronger Wed. even though daily suggested weakness. I know that's because the daily helps indicate probabilities of support and resistance levels of 10, 21 and 40-period moving avgs. on each chart, more so than direction that day, but in general, they correlate the same, where a higher probability of strong support correlates to a higher price direction in that period. Anyway, I'm holding my IWM calls and puts, and probably exiting the puts on Monday if the 3-hour indicates to do so, and adding another lot to my calls to lower the avg. purchase price ahead of a midweek rally. Then buying puts again at some point in the second half of next week, unless the forecast changes next week based on FOMC.

Not sure I see am upside in the short term, so I’ll just hang on.

buy

TT. Does YINN still look good from June 11 out for a few weeks? I kight cut some if my TNA losses and jump back in.

Correction to what I wrote below (sorry, not trying to dominate forum but hate writing opposite of what I meant): This sentence was supposed to be a 'higher low' around London close, not a lower low. '15-min. also says worst was near session open and a lower low within half hour of 11:30 (London close?).'

I'm having a tough time figuring out today. After 10:30 AM update to 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60 minute charts, the 5 and 10-min. say the worst is behind us, at least for couple hours (as far ahead as they can be considered), with 10-min. seeing marked improvement by 10:40 and especially after 11. 15-min. also says worst was near session open and a lower low within half hour of 11:30 (London close?). The 30-min. also sees weakness around there but could be a lower low or close to it. The hourly also thinks the worst is behind us for today, with much improvement midday and slower gains by mid afternoon, maybe sideways choppy. Monday looks bad. Wednesday still looks great. Typically this kind of unexpected volatility spike from jobs report at 8:30 adjusts the patterns, so I'm looking out for clues early next week if the rally that was to end around Wed. (or Thur. AM) starts and ends a day or two later. It's not going to be as strong as it was forecasted earlier this week. The only positive from all this is that when the downside actually begins, there appears to be plenty to make off TZA shares or IWM puts for a couple weeks minimum.

So how many May jobs added were seasonal?

The May jobs figure is BS since at least half are seasonal

So what does WaveTech say now?

Looks like we’ll need help from the jobs report.

Fing BS

Had to be a fed comment just now

index is a joke

I'm confused by WaveTech b/c RUT hourly indicates decline through EOD/COB, but the 2-hour and 3-hour PPMs indicate a move up this afternoon (sometime after London close). Daily chart PPMs are not as bullish as yesterday, but still bullish, with only PPM-2 pointing down (so PPM-1 and -3 up). Taken together, I think the hourly is wrong and too heavily weighing this morning's selling, and the longer interval charts are right that this will reverse later today. Still, I don't like hourly contradicting the others b/c sometimes a new trend starts with shorter period charts since they get more frequent updates. But I'm sticking with assuming this downside consolidation will reverse this afternoon, and that means I exit my IWM puts. Daily RUT still points up through Wed. despite some consolidation like this due to the big move up yesterday.

Over 2080 by tomorrow and 2110 by Tuesday

Such a game

Ready for lift off 👍

WaveTech RUT daily changed its projection after session open today; it might change it again, but it's no longer 2 PPMs down and 1 up today. PPM-1 and -2 are strongly pointing in opposite directions (so volatility) and PPM-3 points slightly up, so the edge is higher today. On 3-hour (half-session) RUT, only PPM-2 points down this morning, and all 3 PPMs point up this afternoon (12:30-3:30), but tomorrow morning (9:30-12:30) points down for PPM-1 and -2, while -3 is kinda flat and less important. Taking this together, I'd exit shorts and buy longs this morning.

So something is up. TNA is up 5.21% in AH which is not at all normal.

Next support at 1950. Good risk:reward on short side still. Patience. Put on a small position and wait…

BREAKING NEWS. A SEA OF RED TO PAINT WALL ST. ARMAGEDDON HAS ARRIVED.

To reinforce what I wrote here on May 24th with a similar chart of RUT to illustrate there's still some gap to fill, this downside consolidation probably concludes tomorrow, given daily RUT on WaveTech still shows only 1 of 3 PPM (price pressure momentum) metrics pointing up tomorrow (PPM-3), and only modestly. So if there's a gap higher in morning, don't trust it, but if it's mid to late afternoon, then maybe that's the low is done for this week and next. Daily still forecasts a rally from this Thursday (D-Day + 80 Years) through Wed., June 12, with SPX hanging on another day potentially, before more downside. Now, the weekly RUT chart's PPMs indicate a positive week of June 24th, but that might just indicate there's strong support that week, not necessarily higher prices, but I'll check daily charts ahead of that week in hopes of clarity, like if daily start to look more constructive then. Whether the whole second half of June is generally bearish, or just before and after then, July looks bearish across the major domestic stock market indexes. This rally that starts in second half of this week looked more promising in weeks before, but less so now, and that includes SPX and NDX. By June 14, I'm leaning bearish rest of month. So just remember D-Day (6/6) begins the bull, and by Flag Day (6/14) the Bear is back. I hope it's not the Russian bear.

Overdone so I’ll call this the bottom.

No way RUT should be breakeven this year regardless of what happens with interest rates.