US Small Cap 2000 (RUT)

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buy

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Timothy Technography 20 hours ago

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I mentioned on May 24 EOD before the holiday that there's more gaps to fill on the daily chart, and you can see we're about there. WaveTech daily and 2-3 hour charts indicate more weakness tomorrow before bounce around FOMC Wednesday. WaveTech daily did not forecast these last three days correctly until after session open, and that's not helpful, although as I wrote earlier today and yesterday, the 2-3 hour charts have been reliable not just for that day but a good portion of the next session, something I haven't always seen. Like on Wed. when the market soared, the daily chart still indicated more upside Thur. and Fri, a down Mon. and higher high on Tues.-Wed. before a decline in momentum. In contrast, the 2 and 3 hour chart momentum and moving avgs. indicated a big decline on Thurs., which materialized, and yesterday afternoon, they too indicated more weakness today, and they say the same for Monday. So I never exited my IWM (or TLT) put options in case the intraday charts proved correct. Similarly, I remember on Tues. afternoon, the intraday pointing to a stronger Wed. even though daily suggested weakness. I know that's because the daily helps indicate probabilities of support and resistance levels of 10, 21 and 40-period moving avgs. on each chart, more so than direction that day, but in general, they correlate the same, where a higher probability of strong support correlates to a higher price direction in that period. Anyway, I'm holding my IWM calls and puts, and probably exiting the puts on Monday if the 3-hour indicates to do so, and adding another lot to my calls to lower the avg. purchase price ahead of a midweek rally. Then buying puts again at some point in the second half of next week, unless the forecast changes next week based on FOMC.

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Christopher Cooper 22 hours ago

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Not sure I see am upside in the short term, so I’ll just hang on.

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Ronaldo Neamiah 23 hours ago

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buy

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Christopher Cooper 23 hours ago

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TT. Does YINN still look good from June 11 out for a few weeks? I kight cut some if my TNA losses and jump back in.

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Timothy Technography Jun 07, 2024 10:55AM ET

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Correction to what I wrote below (sorry, not trying to dominate forum but hate writing opposite of what I meant): This sentence was supposed to be a 'higher low' around London close, not a lower low. '15-min. also says worst was near session open and a lower low within half hour of 11:30 (London close?).'

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Timothy Technography Jun 07, 2024 10:40AM ET

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I'm having a tough time figuring out today. After 10:30 AM update to 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60 minute charts, the 5 and 10-min. say the worst is behind us, at least for couple hours (as far ahead as they can be considered), with 10-min. seeing marked improvement by 10:40 and especially after 11. 15-min. also says worst was near session open and a lower low within half hour of 11:30 (London close?). The 30-min. also sees weakness around there but could be a lower low or close to it. The hourly also thinks the worst is behind us for today, with much improvement midday and slower gains by mid afternoon, maybe sideways choppy. Monday looks bad. Wednesday still looks great. Typically this kind of unexpected volatility spike from jobs report at 8:30 adjusts the patterns, so I'm looking out for clues early next week if the rally that was to end around Wed. (or Thur. AM) starts and ends a day or two later. It's not going to be as strong as it was forecasted earlier this week. The only positive from all this is that when the downside actually begins, there appears to be plenty to make off TZA shares or IWM puts for a couple weeks minimum.

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Timothy Technography Jun 07, 2024 10:40AM ET

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At 10:45 SPX hit another all time high. So overall, the market isn't concerned by the jobs report. I knew those folks who sold stocks and bonds between 8:30 and session open were mindless. Unless you're able to sell near the price before the plunge, you don't sell when the knife falls that quickly, as it will bounce back if not fully recover.

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Christopher Cooper 22 hours ago

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So yesterday bad, today bad and Monday bad with some hope of a rally next week followed by a decline?

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Christopher Cooper 20 hours ago

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Timothy Technography jobs report obviously impacted small cap which leads me to believe its another over-reaction.

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Christopher Cooper 20 hours ago

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I don’t think Monday will be bad, since this week was worse than expected. Hoping for the rally over the next three days. I’ll stay away from YINN since it’s a mess lately, and bought a chunk of NVDA today anticipating a post split run-up

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Timothy Technography 19 hours ago

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I want to see WaveTech update the 2- and 3-hour RUT PPMs on Monday, but right now, 10 minutes before close, the 3-hour indicates downtrend all Monday while the 2-hour indicates improvement or at least stabilization in the afternoon. It's typical for the shorter term chart PPMs to indicate a reversal before the longer duration, just like what I reported this morning. Either way, I'll buy IWM calls on Monday, probably afternoon, to add to what I own already to lower avg. cost. Good thing is my IWM puts (and TLT puts) made a lot of gain the past two days and will Monday too if WaveTech correct. I just hope we get that bounce by Tuesday. I'm curious what FOMC would say that would rally Wed. but start to sell off within 1-3 days later, assuming that's what causes this daily chart forecast.

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Christopher Cooper Jun 07, 2024 9:12AM ET

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So how many May jobs added were seasonal?

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Christopher Cooper Jun 07, 2024 8:47AM ET

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The May jobs figure is BS since at least half are seasonal

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Christopher Cooper Jun 07, 2024 8:40AM ET

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So what does WaveTech say now?

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Timothy Technography Jun 07, 2024 8:40AM ET

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I'm waiting till after 10:30 to comment b/c the closer to session open, the less reliable it is, due to lack of data. And while I could look at RTY futures for guidance, but it's just as confusing. The 5-15 min. charts indicate the weakness ends by around 10:30 +/- 15 min., but the longer the duration, the longer the downside projection. And the daily RUT changed again at open, from 2 of 3 PPMs up, to one up, one down, one sideways. This coming Monday was already going to be a down day, with 2 down and 1 up, before sharply higher for 1-3 days. And Monday still shows 2 down and 1 up, but hell, WaveTech daily forecast got the past two days wrong until session open, which is too late, and today, it looks like it's wrong again. However, the 2- and 3-hour charts have been more reliable, as they contradicted the daily forecast of next day, but I disregarded them until now. RUT 3-hour now (10:18 AM) says a weak AM and sideways to up modestly this afternoon, and Monday looks worse than this morning, a modest recovery on Tuesday, a strong Wed. and Thurs. open, maybe extended before the decline.

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