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Nikkei 225 Futures - Jun 24

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38,600.0 +310.0    +0.81%
17:06:00 - Closed. Currency in JPY ( Disclaimer )
Type:  Index Future
Underlying:  Nikkei 225
  • Prev. Close: 38,597.5
  • Open: 38,185.0
  • Day's Range: 38,170.0 - 38,610.0
Nikkei 225 38,600.0 +310.0 +0.81%

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Nikkei 225 Futures Discussions

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Sien Hii
Sien 13 hours ago
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look at the weekly chart and you will see this more clearly the current trend pattern..range volatility is the best for traders
Zombi e
Zombi e 16 hours ago
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Since interest rates are the same, stocks will continue to rise this year and the yen will be a poor. Japan gov is not interested in the japanese people.my 3x leveraged investment kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 16 hours ago
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Japanese dont buy a lot of Japanese stocks. A lot are bought buy Americans, but the level of stock ownership in the US as a percentage of household assets has consistently reached very high levels before the biggest ever historic market crashes, such as in 1929. And very recently the level of stock ownership as a percentage of household assets has been at the highest levels ever recorded. What I mean is, there is good reason to be careful, and not only a little careful but very very careful. In 1929 and in other periods there were very sudden very big market drops. While 3x leverage is not a problem if your position is small, if it is big, you could lose a lot of money. Just saying.
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 21 hours ago
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1715644986_44974.jpg
For three months the Nikkei has been virtually flat. But look at the Hang Seng, in comparison. And despite this recent very staggering outperformance of the Hang Seng, the Nikkei sports a CAPE that is about DOUBLE that of the Hang Seng. That means that looking at the valuations of the both judging by the cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio, markets have appraised Japanese stocks as worth double the value of stocks of Hong Kong. Basically that means that for one dollar of earnings from Japan, investors are willing to pay double what they would pay for one dollar of earnings from Hong Kong. That is, they feel that one dollar of earnings from Hong Kong is worth half of what they are worth coming from Japan! How is this even possible? In what world does that make any sense. Is not a dollar a dollar? Tell me how it makes any sense? Strictly on the basis of these numbers, it is safe to expect that over time, these numbers will converge. The only way this will not happen is if people do not think a dollar from one place is worth more or less than a dollar from another place.
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 20 hours ago
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Put another way, do you think one dollar of earnings from Japan is worth fifty cents of earnings from Hong Kong? Are they the same? Lol. GLTA.
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 18 hours ago
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Sorry I got i backwards in the above post. I meant to say do you think one dollar of earnings from Hong Kong is worth the same as fifty cents of earnings from Japan? That is, would you pay double the amount of money for one dollar of earnings from Japan when you could pay half of that for one dollar of earnings from Hong Kong? This question only applies to investors who generally take a long term view. Short term, markets are unpredicable and because earnings and economic conditions fluctuate, taking a short term view on the above basis is not a good idea. And what is my point? The same amount of profits from Hong Kong are currently being underpriced relative to the same value of earnings from Japan--that is, if you take a long term view. And it is by a factor of about two to one.
Sien Hii
Sien 18 hours ago
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YTD chart Nikkei is still a out performed HSI with +14.44% while HSI after recent rally YTD is only +11.16%... and if you zoom till last year chart, Nikkei is more upside than HSI which I believe many had bought since then... there is no need to argue whether it should drop or rise, everyone enter market only have one goal thats to make money.. we retailers only tag along with the big boys to make money, when the trend going up, we LONG, trend down, we PUT..
Sien Hii
Sien 18 hours ago
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we all know bull bear both can make money, while only pig got slaughter...
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay 17 hours ago
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What I am talking to is the fundamentals. And all I am saying is the Hang Seng, relative to valuation, is selling at about half the price of the Nikkei. That is, if you are interested in taking a long term view, the Hang Seng is a much much better value for your money. On a relative basis, if you buy the Hang Seng relative to value, you are paying about half of what you would for the Nikkei. As for performance of both indexes, research shows that from a technical perspective, reversion to the mean strategies usually do better long term than trend following. But let's just watch and see.
Ondřej Dobečka
Ondřej Dobečka May 13, 2024 10:17AM ET
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Time to pump
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay May 13, 2024 8:08AM ET
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How is Japan doing so well as you Japan bulls think. I am long the Hang Seng, and look at it fly. This index is not even keeping up with the US500, and its currency has generally weakened a lot--meaning any Americans or investors from other countries have done very very poorly recently on a position in this index.
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Chuck Kay
ChuckKay May 13, 2024 8:08AM ET
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I have misled no one.
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay May 13, 2024 8:08AM ET
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Give it time and you will see this index will sink and sink A LOT.
Sien Hii
Sien May 13, 2024 8:08AM ET
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you should show the longer period chart.. Nikkei and US market rose before Hang Seng..Funds already making huge profits and now they are trying to exit.. Hang Seng or Chinese stocks are cheap now, that's why funds is switching..
Sien Hii
Sien May 13, 2024 8:08AM ET
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by the way, Hang Seng index just breakout the major downtrend, that's why recent FOMO making it 90deg shoot up which is not very healthy also.. correction need to be done in order rise more healthily and sustainable rise..
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay May 13, 2024 8:08AM ET
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Sien Hii The reason the Hang Seng is rising in a sustainable way is for many reasons, but mainly because it was very vey cheap, the exact opposite of Japan. And in time both will revert to the mean on a valuation basis. The Hang Seng will rise as irrational fear drops away and the Nikkei will fall as irrational euphoria drops away.
Ondřej Dobečka
Ondřej Dobečka May 13, 2024 5:44AM ET
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43k
Sohai Cat
Sohai Cat May 13, 2024 4:17AM ET
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Chucky, stop acting like messiah. U have done enough damage since last year misleading people to short. U cant even pass the 1st stage to become a messiah.u better try writing children fairy tale books. Lmao
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay May 13, 2024 4:17AM ET
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I have misled no one. The numbers are all there. Euphoria and animal spirits have driven this rally. The number do not add up. If GDP had risen you might have a case, but you dont. Also, as explained below, very high ratios of debt to GDP hinder GDP growth. Japan's level of debt to GDP is extremely high, hence expecting it to suddenly break out of its three plus decade long flat GDP level is silly. Hence, higher stock prices out of the usual range, as now, is not rational: Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Research has shown that when a country's debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds a certain threshold (often estimated around 90% to 100%), it can have a detrimental effect on economic growth. As the debt burden increases, it can lead to reduced private investment, lower productivity, and hinder long-term economic expansion. Crowding Out Effect: High levels of government borrowing can crowd out private sector investment by increasing interest rates and reducing the availability of funds for businesses and individuals. This can dampen private sector activity, which is a crucial driver of GDP growth. Debt Servicing Costs: When a significant portion of government revenue is allocated towards servicing debt, it leaves fewer resources available for productive investments in areas such as infrastructure, education, and innovation. This can hinder long-term economic growth potential. Investor Confidence and Interest Rates: Excessive government debt can erode investor confidence in a country's ability to repay its obligations. This can lead to higher borrowing costs as investors demand higher interest rates on government bonds. The resulting increase in interest rates can negatively impact private sector borrowing costs and investment, thereby affecting GDP growth. Austerity Measures: In some cases, countries burdened with extreme government debt have resorted to austerity measures, such as tax increases and spending cuts, to regain fiscal stability. These measures often have a contractionary effect on the economy, leading to reduced consumer spending, lower business investment, and overall slower GDP growth.
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay May 13, 2024 4:17AM ET
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In case you didnt know, Japan's debt to GDP level exceeds the 90 to 100% range the above passage points to, and by a lot. Japan's debt to GDP levels are in excess of 250% of GDP.
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay May 13, 2024 4:17AM ET
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By the way. The idea that either you or I influence anyone is silly. Anyone who gets their info from a random person on a forum is a very silly person. Much as you or I might try to educate people they need to do the research themselves. And if they did they would know what is going to happen here.
Ondřej Dobečka
Ondřej Dobečka May 13, 2024 2:39AM ET
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ChuckKay is spaming, new ATH is coming :D :D :D
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay May 13, 2024 2:39AM ET
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This forum is dead as a doornail. Nobody posts here. People just come, downvote and leave without a whisper of what is on their minds, or any whys or wherefores. Just empty disagreement with no word but an occasional senseles mesage that means nothing.
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay May 13, 2024 2:39AM ET
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senseless message*
Sohai Cat
Sohai Cat May 13, 2024 2:39AM ET
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Agree. Stop spamming the forum chucky.
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay May 13, 2024 2:39AM ET
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It's a DEAD forum. Without me, there would be NO discussion here at all!
Chuck Kay
ChuckKay May 13, 2024 1:49AM ET
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What people need to understand, and this applies to both Japanese and US stocks, generally speaking, is that prices are high for two reasons, and that in both cases there is ALWAYS subsequent reversion to the mean. Hence, there are two forces that will pull these bubble prices down, and that is irregardless of current imbalances, like very very high sovereign AND private debt, and in both countries. The first is margins, which will revert. The second is profit multiples, which will revert. GLTA.
dummey dummey
dummey dummey May 12, 2024 10:33PM ET
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again swing down correction come TRG 37900
 
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