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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.3% | 8.8% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 4.4x - 6.4x | 5.4x |
Fair Value | €143.65 - €183.70 | €162.96 |
Upside | 13.5% - 45.1% | 28.7% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(EUR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 |
Revenue | 1,718 | 1,602 | 1,554 | 1,605 | 1,689 | 1,773 | 1,835 | 1,872 | 1,909 | 1,947 | 1,986 |
% Growth | -3.9% | -6.8% | -3.0% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 167 | 116 | 139 | 153 | 178 | 187 | 193 | 197 | 201 | 205 | 209 |
% of Revenue | 9.7% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(EUR in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | |
EBITDA | 116 | 139 | 153 | 178 | 187 | 193 | 197 | 201 | 205 | 209 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (63) | (61) | (63) | (74) | (80) | (83) | (85) | (86) | (88) | (90) | |
EBIT | 53 | 78 | 90 | 103 | 106 | 110 | 112 | 115 | 117 | 119 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (16) | (24) | (28) | (32) | (33) | (34) | (35) | (36) | (36) | (37) | |
NOPAT | 89 | 37 | 54 | 62 | 71 | 73 | 76 | 78 | 79 | 81 | 82 |
Capital Expenditures | (43) | (34) | (74) | (99) | (99) | (98) | (99) | (98) | (98) | (98) | (98) |
NWC Investment | 7 | 12 | 5 | (5) | (9) | (9) | (6) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) |
(+) D&A | 39 | 63 | 61 | 63 | 74 | 80 | 83 | 85 | 86 | 88 | 90 |
Free Cash Flow | 92 | 77 | 45 | 21 | 38 | 47 | 54 | 60 | 63 | 66 | 70 |
% Growth | -16% | -41% | -55% | 85% | 25% | 14% | 11% | 6% | 5% | 5% |