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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 2.6x - 2.9x | 2.7x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 1.4x - 1.6x | 1.5x |
| Fair Value | C$3.78 - C$4.24 | C$4.01 |
| Upside | -27.0% - -18.2% | -22.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Mining Corp. | FVI | TSX:FVI |
| Capstone Copper Corp. | CS | TSX:CS |
| Galiano Gold Inc. | GAU | TSX:GAU |
| China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd. | CGG | TSX:CGG |
| Ero Copper Corp. | ERO | TSX:ERO |
| New Gold Inc. | NGD | TSX:NGD |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| FVI | CS | GAU | CGG | ERO | NGD | |||
| TSX:FVI | TSX:CS | TSX:GAU | TSX:CGG | TSX:ERO | TSX:NGD | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 32.8% | 30.7% | NM- | -4.2% | 10.5% | 8.0% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 21.0% | 26.2% | NM- | -19.0% | -1.4% | 7.4% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 26.1% | 18.9% | NM | 64.7% | 10.0% | 17.5% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 13.9% | 15.0% | -1.1% | 14.4% | 35.9% | 8.2% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.2% | 1.4% | NA | 6.1% | 21.6% | 7.3% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 22.2% | 8.9% | 22.4% | 16.3% | 22.7% | 19.2% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 22.2% | 8.9% | 22.4% | 16.3% | 22.7% | 19.2% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.79x | 3.64x | 1.12x | 5.93x | 3.92x | 3.41x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.0x | 40.7x | 5.0x | 287.9x | 17.3x | 17.8x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 1.77x | 2.57x | 1.39x | 5.05x | 2.70x | 3.10x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 1.12x | 3.64x | 5.93x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 1.24x | 1.79x | 3.41x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 2.61x | 2.75x | 2.88x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 925 | 925 | 925 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,411 | 2,538 | 2,665 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (289) | (289) | (289) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,122 | 2,249 | 2,376 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 791.3 | 791.3 | 791.3 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 2.68 | 2.84 | 3.00 | |||||
| FX Rate: USD/CAD | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 3.84 | 4.07 | 4.30 | 5.18 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -25.9% | -21.4% | -17.0% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | FVI | CS | GAU | CGG | ERO | NGD | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,900 | 5,798 | 259 | 3,116 | 1,841 | 3,152 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 231 | 145 | 106 | 302 | 50 | 110 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 12 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (194) | (1,433) | (39) | (743) | (620) | (400) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (62) | (408) | (4) | (24) | (4) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,876 | 4,115 | 322 | 2,700 | 1,267 | 2,863 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 306.5 | 762.1 | 257.2 | 396.4 | 103.6 | 791.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 6.12 | 5.40 | 1.25 | 6.81 | 12.24 | 3.62 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 8.76 | 7.73 | 1.79 | 9.75 | 17.52 | 5.18 | |
| Trading Currency | CAD | CAD | CAD | CAD | CAD | CAD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.70 | |