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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.3% | 8.8% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 5.3% - 6.3% | 5.8% |
| Fair Value | ¥929.03 - ¥1,587 | ¥1,149 |
| Upside | -35.7% - 9.8% | -20.5% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | |
| Revenue | 964,090 | 945,047 | 949,800 | 969,000 | 988,380 | 1,008,148 | 1,028,311 | 1,048,877 | 1,069,854 | 1,091,251 | 1,113,076 | |
| % Growth | 3.3% | -2.0% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 60,749 | 58,908 | 68,450 | 72,300 | 73,746 | 75,221 | 76,725 | 78,260 | 79,825 | 81,422 | 83,050 | |
| % of Revenue | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 58,908 | 68,450 | 72,300 | 73,746 | 75,221 | 76,725 | 78,260 | 79,825 | 81,422 | 83,050 | 83,050 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (33,908) | (35,700) | (33,600) | (34,272) | (34,957) | (35,657) | (36,370) | (37,097) | (37,839) | (38,596) | (47,421) | |
| EBIT | 25,000 | 32,750 | 38,700 | 39,474 | 40,263 | 41,069 | 41,890 | 42,728 | 43,582 | 44,454 | 35,629 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (8,500) | (11,135) | (13,158) | (13,421) | (13,690) | (13,963) | (14,243) | (14,527) | (14,818) | (15,114) | (12,114) | |
| NOPAT | 12,728 | 16,500 | 21,615 | 25,542 | 26,053 | 26,574 | 27,105 | 27,647 | 28,200 | 28,764 | 29,340 | 23,515 |
| Capital Expenditures | (47,342) | (54,300) | (47,500) | (47,500) | (49,767) | (50,762) | (49,343) | (49,957) | (50,021) | (49,774) | (49,917) | (49,917) |
| NWC Investment | (5,633) | 3,463 | (864) | (3,491) | (3,524) | (3,595) | (3,667) | (3,740) | (3,815) | (3,891) | (3,969) | (11,638) |
| (+) D&A | 41,464 | 33,908 | 35,700 | 33,600 | 34,272 | 34,957 | 35,657 | 36,370 | 37,097 | 37,839 | 38,596 | 47,421 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,217 | (429) | 8,951 | 8,151 | 7,034 | 7,175 | 9,753 | 10,320 | 11,462 | 12,939 | 14,050 | 9,381 |
| % Growth | NM | NM | -9% | -14% | 2% | 36% | 6% | 11% | 13% | 9% | -33% | |