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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 4.5x - 6.5x | 5.5x |
| Fair Value | ¥3,081 - ¥3,621 | ¥3,341 |
| Upside | 80.2% - 111.7% | 95.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 |
| Revenue | 141,923 | 138,300 | 157,650 | 164,350 | 156,200 | 158,700 | 158,700 | 158,700 | 158,700 | 158,700 | 158,700 |
| % Growth | 21.2% | -2.6% | 14.0% | 4.2% | -5.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA | 13,742 | 16,000 | 19,300 | 21,800 | 24,650 | 25,650 | 25,650 | 25,650 | 25,650 | 25,650 | 25,650 |
| % of Revenue | 9.7% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 15.8% | 16.2% | 16.2% | 16.2% | 16.2% | 16.2% | 16.2% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (JPY in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | |
| EBITDA | 16,000 | 19,300 | 21,800 | 24,650 | 25,650 | 25,650 | 25,650 | 25,650 | 25,650 | 25,650 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (700) | (1,400) | (1,500) | (1,250) | (1,250) | (1,250) | (1,250) | (1,250) | (1,250) | (1,250) | |
| EBIT | 15,300 | 17,900 | 20,300 | 23,400 | 24,400 | 24,400 | 24,400 | 24,400 | 24,400 | 24,400 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (1,989) | (2,327) | (2,639) | (3,042) | (3,172) | (3,172) | (3,172) | (3,172) | (3,172) | (3,172) | |
| NOPAT | 10,269 | 13,311 | 15,573 | 17,661 | 20,358 | 21,228 | 21,228 | 21,228 | 21,228 | 21,228 | 21,228 |
| Capital Expenditures | (1,528) | (1,800) | (1,525) | (1,525) | (1,800) | (1,800) | (1,708) | (1,708) | (1,708) | (1,708) | (1,708) |
| NWC Investment | (2,428) | 355 | (1,894) | (656) | 798 | (245) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 1,939 | 700 | 1,400 | 1,500 | 1,250 | 1,250 | 1,250 | 1,250 | 1,250 | 1,250 | 1,250 |
| Free Cash Flow | 8,252 | 12,566 | 13,554 | 16,980 | 20,606 | 20,433 | 20,770 | 20,770 | 20,770 | 20,770 | 20,770 |
| % Growth | 52% | 8% | 25% | 21% | -1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |