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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 18.0x - 19.9x | 19.0x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 22.5x - 24.9x | 23.7x |
| Fair Value | ¥16.31 - ¥18.34 | ¥17.32 |
| Upside | -10.4% - 0.8% | -4.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Hubei Three Gorges Tourism Group Co., Ltd. | 2627 | SZSE:002627 |
| Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co.,Ltd | 603569 | SHSE:603569 |
| Sichuan Fulin Transportation Group Co., Ltd. | 2357 | SZSE:002357 |
| Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | YMM | NYSE:YMM |
| Shanghai Tianchen Co.,Ltd | 600620 | SHSE:600620 |
| Guangdong Jushen Logistics Co., Ltd. | 1202 | SZSE:001202 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 2627 | 603569 | 2357 | YMM | 600620 | 1202 | ||
| SZSE:002627 | SHSE:603569 | SZSE:002357 | NYSE:YMM | SHSE:600620 | SZSE:001202 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -3.4% | -18.6% | -7.6% | NM- | NM- | 15.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -6.0% | -16.1% | 3.8% | NM- | NM- | -4.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 27.3% | 37.4% | -38.0% | 122.9% | -92.4% | 25.3% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 11.6% | 6.6% | 19.3% | -38.1% | -19.1% | 11.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 4.0% | 3.6% | 16.3% | 13.6% | 21.7% | 7.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 11.5% | 6.0% | 17.8% | 22.7% | 19.7% | 11.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 23.2% | 7.2% | 13.1% | 22.7% | 5.5% | 14.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 3.32x | 1.48x | 1.97x | 6.08x | 17.42x | 2.75x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.3x | 20.6x | 15.0x | 26.8x | 316.4x | 18.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 33.8x | 67.7x | -56.9x | 27.6x | -109.4x | 24.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.3x | 20.6x | 316.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 20.5x | 21.8x | 28.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 18.0x | 19.0x | 19.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 144 | 144 | 144 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,604 | 2,741 | 2,878 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (382) | (382) | (382) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,221 | 2,358 | 2,495 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 126.3 | 126.3 | 126.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 17.59 | 18.67 | 19.76 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 17.59 | 18.67 | 19.76 | 18.19 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -3.3% | 2.6% | 8.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 2627 | 603569 | 2357 | YMM | 600620 | 1202 | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,911 | 5,696 | 1,695 | 68,254 | 3,042 | 2,680 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,381 | 551 | 111 | 20,813 | 348 | 107 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 116 | 593 | 1,251 | 9,876 | 663 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (382) | (1,964) | (543) | (65) | (379) | (489) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (237) | (295) | (72) | (458) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,789 | 4,581 | 2,442 | 98,420 | 3,674 | 2,297 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 699.0 | 603.5 | 313.5 | 1,045.8 | 686.7 | 126.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 5.42 | 7.59 | 7.79 | 94.11 | 5.35 | 18.19 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.27 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.42 | 7.59 | 7.79 | 12.95 | 5.35 | 18.19 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | USD | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.27 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |