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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 10.0% - 9.0% | 9.5% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 15.4x - 17.4x | 16.4x |
| Fair Value | ¥17.70 - ¥20.26 | ¥18.94 |
| Upside | 25.6% - 43.8% | 34.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 |
| Revenue | 1,688 | 1,777 | 1,973 | 2,223 | 2,390 | 2,474 | 2,523 | 2,574 | 2,625 | 2,678 | 2,731 |
| % Growth | 22.2% | 5.2% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 395 | 401 | 430 | 481 | 541 | 560 | 571 | 583 | 594 | 606 | 618 |
| % of Revenue | 23.4% | 22.6% | 21.8% | 21.6% | 22.6% | 22.6% | 22.6% | 22.6% | 22.6% | 22.6% | 22.6% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | |
| EBITDA | 401 | 430 | 481 | 541 | 560 | 571 | 583 | 594 | 606 | 618 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 34 | 60 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (30) | (33) | (37) | (40) | (41) | (42) | (43) | (44) | (45) | (46) | |
| EBIT | 405 | 457 | 526 | 501 | 518 | 529 | 539 | 550 | 561 | 572 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (53) | (59) | (68) | (65) | (67) | (69) | (70) | (72) | (73) | (74) | |
| NOPAT | 316 | 353 | 398 | 458 | 436 | 451 | 460 | 469 | 479 | 488 | 498 |
| Capital Expenditures | (109) | (70) | (50) | (30) | (1) | (27) | (20) | (16) | (16) | (17) | (16) |
| NWC Investment | 16 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| (+) D&A | 31 | 30 | 33 | 37 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 |
| Free Cash Flow | 254 | 316 | 390 | 477 | 483 | 469 | 485 | 499 | 509 | 519 | 530 |
| % Growth | 25% | 23% | 22% | 1% | -3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | |