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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.3% | 8.8% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 11.0x - 13.0x | 12.0x |
| Fair Value | HK$ 0.43 - HK$ 0.60 | HK$ 0.51 |
| Upside | -63.3% - -49.0% | -56.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (HKD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 |
| Revenue | 494 | 512 | 522 | 532 | 543 | 554 | 565 | 576 | 588 | 599 | 611 |
| % Growth | 6.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 33 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 |
| % of Revenue | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (HKD in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | |
| EBITDA | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (43) | (44) | (45) | (46) | (46) | (47) | (48) | (49) | (50) | (51) | |
| EBIT | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| NOPAT | (8) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| Capital Expenditures | (26) | (55) | (56) | (57) | (58) | (59) | (58) | (59) | (59) | (59) | (59) |
| NWC Investment | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| (+) D&A | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 |
| Free Cash Flow | 13 | (11) | (12) | (12) | (13) | (13) | (11) | (10) | (9) | (8) | (7) |
| % Growth | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | |