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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 8.0% - 7.0% | 7.5% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 5.6x - 6.2x | 5.9x |
Fair Value | $143.21 - $162.91 | $152.73 |
Upside | 33.6% - 52.0% | 42.5% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 51,722 | 52,916 | 53,891 | 55,353 | 57,439 | 58,049 | 57,681 | 57,681 | 57,681 | 57,681 | 57,681 |
% Growth | 10.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 1.1% | -0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
EBITDA | 20,662 | 21,877 | 22,258 | 23,078 | 24,700 | 24,895 | 23,196 | 23,196 | 23,196 | 23,196 | 23,196 |
% of Revenue | 39.9% | 41.3% | 41.3% | 41.7% | 43.0% | 42.9% | 40.2% | 40.2% | 40.2% | 40.2% | 40.2% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
EBITDA | 21,877 | 22,258 | 23,078 | 24,700 | 24,895 | 23,196 | 23,196 | 23,196 | 23,196 | 23,196 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (1,312) | (1,626) | (1,408) | (1,591) | (1,630) | (1,620) | (1,620) | (1,620) | (1,620) | (1,620) | |
EBIT | 20,565 | 20,632 | 21,670 | 23,109 | 23,265 | 21,576 | 21,576 | 21,576 | 21,576 | 21,576 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (2,468) | (2,476) | (2,600) | (2,773) | (2,792) | (2,589) | (2,589) | (2,589) | (2,589) | (2,589) | |
NOPAT | 14,362 | 18,097 | 18,156 | 19,070 | 20,336 | 20,473 | 18,987 | 18,987 | 18,987 | 18,987 | 18,987 |
Capital Expenditures | (1,366) | (1,404) | (1,403) | (1,429) | (1,468) | (1,405) | (1,396) | (1,396) | (1,396) | (1,396) | (1,396) |
NWC Investment | 366 | 86 | 71 | 106 | 151 | 44 | (27) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
(+) D&A | 4,342 | 1,312 | 1,626 | 1,408 | 1,591 | 1,630 | 1,620 | 1,620 | 1,620 | 1,620 | 1,620 |
Free Cash Flow | 17,704 | 18,092 | 18,449 | 19,154 | 20,610 | 20,742 | 19,184 | 19,211 | 19,211 | 19,211 | 19,211 |
% Growth | 2% | 4% | 8% | 1% | -8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |