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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 17.3% - 16.3% | 16.8% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 3.9x - 5.9x | 4.9x |
Fair Value | $1.02 - $1.38 | $1.19 |
Upside | 69.3% - 130.4% | 98.8% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(EUR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 664 | 642 | 661 | 749 | 771 | 787 | 802 | 819 | 835 | 852 | 869 |
% Growth | -7.8% | -3.3% | 3.0% | 13.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 18 | 79 | 88 | 118 | 121 | 124 | 126 | 129 | 131 | 134 | 137 |
% of Revenue | 2.8% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 15.7% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(EUR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
EBITDA | 79 | 88 | 118 | 121 | 124 | 126 | 129 | 131 | 134 | 137 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (70) | (71) | (81) | (83) | (85) | (86) | (88) | (90) | (91) | (93) | |
EBIT | 9 | 16 | 37 | 39 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 43 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (1) | (2) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (7) | |
NOPAT | (4) | 7 | 14 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 36 | 37 |
Capital Expenditures | (10) | (20) | (22) | (23) | (23) | (24) | (23) | (23) | (23) | (23) | (23) |
NWC Investment | 6 | 2 | (2) | (10) | (3) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
(+) D&A | 23 | 70 | 71 | 81 | 83 | 85 | 86 | 88 | 90 | 91 | 93 |
Free Cash Flow | 15 | 60 | 61 | 80 | 90 | 93 | 95 | 98 | 100 | 103 | 105 |
% Growth | 302% | 1% | 31% | 13% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% |