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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 15.1x - 16.7x | 15.9x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 11.6x - 12.8x | 12.2x |
| Fair Value | $22.97 - $25.80 | $24.38 |
| Upside | 10.9% - 24.6% | 17.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Amcor plc | 485 | DB:485 |
| Klabin S.A. | KLBN3 | BOVESPA:KLBN3 |
| Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG | MYM | DB:MYM |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) | SCA A | OM:SCAA |
| Graphic Packaging Holding Company | 4W8 | DB:4W8 |
| Billerud AB (publ) | BLRD.Y | OTCPK:BLRD.Y |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 485 | KLBN3 | MYM | SCA A | 4W8 | BLRD.Y | ||
| DB:485 | BOVESPA:KLBN3 | DB:MYM | OM:SCAA | DB:4W8 | OTCPK:BLRD.Y | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 3.0% | 17.0% | -5.5% | 2.1% | 16.4% | 17.7% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -3.9% | -6.5% | -3.6% | -16.8% | 26.2% | 7.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 7.3% | 13.4% | 14.1% | 27.7% | -11.4% | 276.2% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 10.1% | 19.8% | 7.9% | 17.2% | 10.2% | 5.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 9.4% | 16.6% | 4.0% | 12.8% | 13.7% | 1.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 9.3% | 17.3% | 4.7% | 14.8% | 13.0% | 5.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 10.0% | 17.3% | 4.7% | 14.8% | 13.0% | 5.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.55x | 3.02x | 0.74x | 4.73x | 1.49x | 0.72x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 11.0x | 8.1x | 7.2x | 20.3x | 7.8x | 5.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 15.5x | 17.4x | 15.8x | 32.0x | 11.5x | 12.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 11.5x | 15.8x | 32.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 7.4x | 16.7x | 64.1x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 15.1x | 15.9x | 16.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 2,453 | 2,453 | 2,453 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 37,013 | 38,961 | 40,909 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (5,405) | (5,405) | (5,405) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 31,608 | 33,556 | 35,504 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 137.8 | 137.8 | 137.8 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 229.31 | 243.44 | 257.57 | ||||
| FX Rate: SEK/USD | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 22.92 | 24.34 | 25.75 | 20.70 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 10.7% | 17.6% | 24.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 485 | KLBN3 | MYM | SCA A | 4W8 | BLRD.Y | |
| Enterprise Value | 20,981 | 59,666 | 2,986 | 106,378 | 13,018 | 33,946 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 445 | 7,530 | 520 | 1,328 | 157 | 2,561 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 122 | 0 | 1,272 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (7,485) | (41,562) | (1,900) | (14,583) | (5,456) | (7,966) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (7) | (1,985) | 0 | 0 | (1) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 13,934 | 23,770 | 1,606 | 94,395 | 7,718 | 28,541 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,444.3 | 6,079.3 | 20.0 | 702.3 | 300.2 | 137.8 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 9.65 | 3.91 | 80.30 | 134.40 | 25.71 | 207.06 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.08 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.08 | 10.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 8.91 | 3.91 | 80.30 | 134.40 | 23.75 | 20.70 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | BRL | EUR | SEK | EUR | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.08 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.08 | 10.00 | |