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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.5% - 8.5% | 9.0% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 4.0% - 5.0% | 4.5% |
| Fair Value | ₹557.40 - ₹802.65 | ₹653.19 |
| Upside | -21.7% - 12.8% | -8.2% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (INR in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| Revenue | 119,744 | 139,965 | 158,926 | 178,043 | 191,396 | 198,095 | 202,057 | 206,098 | 210,220 | 214,424 | 218,713 | |
| % Growth | 15.4% | 16.9% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 19,947 | 23,226 | 26,959 | 30,573 | 34,780 | 35,997 | 36,717 | 37,452 | 38,201 | 38,965 | 39,744 | |
| % of Revenue | 16.7% | 16.6% | 17.0% | 17.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (INR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 23,226 | 26,959 | 30,573 | 34,780 | 35,997 | 36,717 | 37,452 | 38,201 | 38,965 | 39,744 | 39,744 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (3,499) | (3,973) | (4,452) | (4,786) | (4,953) | (5,052) | (5,154) | (5,257) | (5,362) | (5,469) | (6,996) | |
| EBIT | 19,727 | 22,986 | 26,121 | 29,994 | 31,044 | 31,665 | 32,298 | 32,944 | 33,603 | 34,275 | 32,747 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (4,340) | (5,057) | (5,747) | (6,599) | (6,830) | (6,966) | (7,106) | (7,248) | (7,393) | (7,540) | (7,204) | |
| NOPAT | 13,384 | 15,387 | 17,929 | 20,374 | 23,395 | 24,214 | 24,698 | 25,192 | 25,696 | 26,210 | 26,734 | 25,543 |
| Capital Expenditures | (1,333) | (7,010) | (7,313) | (6,805) | (7,315) | (7,571) | (7,230) | (7,372) | (7,391) | (7,331) | (7,365) | (7,365) |
| NWC Investment | (264) | (335) | (314) | (317) | (221) | (111) | (66) | (67) | (68) | (70) | (71) | (163) |
| (+) D&A | 2,788 | 3,499 | 3,973 | 4,452 | 4,786 | 4,953 | 5,052 | 5,154 | 5,257 | 5,362 | 5,469 | 6,996 |
| Free Cash Flow | 14,575 | 11,541 | 14,275 | 17,705 | 20,645 | 21,486 | 22,455 | 22,907 | 23,494 | 24,171 | 24,768 | 25,012 |
| % Growth | -21% | 24% | 24% | 17% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | |