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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 7.8% - 6.7% | 7.2% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 5.1x - 7.1x | 6.1x |
| Fair Value | €0.82 - €1.02 | €0.91 |
| Upside | 54.6% - 91.7% | 72.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 523,569 | 548,870 | 567,345 | 584,771 | 623,729 | 652,595 | 665,647 | 678,960 | 692,539 | 706,390 | 720,518 |
| % Growth | 3.1% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 127,812 | 146,206 | 151,679 | 153,920 | 149,000 | 150,930 | 153,949 | 157,028 | 160,168 | 163,371 | 166,639 |
| % of Revenue | 24.4% | 26.6% | 26.7% | 26.3% | 23.9% | 23.1% | 23.1% | 23.1% | 23.1% | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| EBITDA | 146,206 | 151,679 | 153,920 | 149,000 | 150,930 | 153,949 | 157,028 | 160,168 | 163,371 | 166,639 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (102,937) | (104,733) | (103,148) | (95,736) | (96,471) | (98,400) | (100,368) | (102,375) | (104,423) | (106,511) | |
| EBIT | 43,269 | 46,946 | 50,772 | 53,264 | 54,460 | 55,549 | 56,660 | 57,793 | 58,949 | 60,128 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (9,952) | (10,798) | (11,678) | (12,251) | (12,526) | (12,776) | (13,032) | (13,292) | (13,558) | (13,829) | |
| NOPAT | 33,057 | 33,317 | 36,148 | 39,094 | 41,013 | 41,934 | 42,772 | 43,628 | 44,500 | 45,391 | 46,298 |
| Capital Expenditures | (90,271) | (83,600) | (85,240) | (84,581) | (84,291) | (85,137) | (84,669) | (84,699) | (84,835) | (84,734) | (84,756) |
| NWC Investment | 6,399 | 10,295 | 7,517 | 7,090 | 15,852 | 11,745 | 5,311 | 5,417 | 5,525 | 5,636 | 5,748 |
| (+) D&A | 84,881 | 102,937 | 104,733 | 103,148 | 95,736 | 96,471 | 98,400 | 100,368 | 102,375 | 104,423 | 106,511 |
| Free Cash Flow | 34,066 | 62,949 | 63,159 | 64,752 | 68,311 | 65,013 | 61,814 | 64,714 | 67,566 | 70,715 | 73,802 |
| % Growth | 85% | 0% | 3% | 5% | -5% | -5% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 4% | |