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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 11.3% - 10.3% | 10.8% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 0.2x - 0.2x | 0.2x |
Fair Value | €10.31 - €10.88 | €10.59 |
Upside | 94.0% - 104.6% | 99.2% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(EUR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 6,455 | 6,582 | 6,812 | 6,930 | 6,474 | 6,490 | 6,490 | 6,490 | 6,490 | 6,490 | 6,490 |
% Growth | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 1.7% | -6.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
EBITDA | 180 | 341 | 368 | 386 | 361 | 362 | 362 | 362 | 362 | 362 | 362 |
% of Revenue | 2.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
EBITDA | 341 | 368 | 386 | 361 | 362 | 362 | 362 | 362 | 362 | 362 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (124) | (126) | (136) | (128) | (122) | (122) | (122) | (122) | (122) | (122) | |
EBIT | 217 | 242 | 250 | 233 | 240 | 240 | 240 | 240 | 240 | 240 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (22) | (24) | (25) | (23) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | |
NOPAT | 124 | 196 | 218 | 225 | 210 | 216 | 216 | 216 | 216 | 216 | 216 |
Capital Expenditures | (73) | (105) | (85) | (85) | (80) | (60) | (60) | (60) | (60) | (60) | (60) |
NWC Investment | 25 | 17 | 31 | 16 | (62) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
(+) D&A | 43 | 124 | 126 | 136 | 128 | 122 | 122 | 122 | 122 | 122 | 122 |
Free Cash Flow | 119 | 232 | 290 | 292 | 195 | 280 | 278 | 278 | 278 | 278 | 278 |
% Growth | 25% | 1% | -33% | 43% | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |