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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
Perpetuity Growth Rate | 4.3% - 5.3% | 4.8% |
Fair Value | R$509.60 - R$827.01 | R$633.11 |
Upside | -25.8% - 20.3% | -7.9% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
Revenue | 24,458 | 26,976 | 28,578 | 29,971 | 31,310 | 32,620 | |
% Growth | 7.6% | 10.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | |
EBITDA | 7,226 | 7,781 | 8,282 | 8,708 | 9,152 | 9,485 | |
% of Revenue | 29.5% | 28.8% | 29.0% | 29.1% | 29.2% | 29.1% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
(USD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Terminal | |
EBITDA | 7,781 | 8,282 | 8,708 | 9,152 | 9,485 | 9,485 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (756) | (709) | (333) | (264) | (98) | (547) | |
EBIT | 7,025 | 7,573 | 8,375 | 8,888 | 9,387 | 8,938 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (1,756) | (1,893) | (2,094) | (2,222) | (2,347) | (2,234) | |
NOPAT | 4,860 | 5,269 | 5,680 | 6,281 | 6,666 | 7,040 | 6,703 |
Capital Expenditures | (316) | (460) | (498) | (577) | (563) | (576) | (576) |
NWC Investment | (155) | (226) | (144) | (125) | (120) | (118) | (139) |
(+) D&A | 746 | 756 | 709 | 333 | 264 | 98 | 547 |
Free Cash Flow | 5,135 | 5,339 | 5,747 | 5,912 | 6,247 | 6,445 | 6,535 |
% Growth | 4% | 8% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 1% |