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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 12.5% - 11.5% | 12.0% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 3.2x - 5.2x | 4.2x |
Fair Value | R$20.58 - R$126.86 | R$72.65 |
Upside | -66.5% - 106.2% | 18.1% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 54,211 | 56,634 | 59,762 | 62,284 | 63,883 | 64,774 |
% Growth | 2.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
EBITDA | 5,615 | 6,718 | 7,421 | 8,197 | 9,099 | 9,226 |
% of Revenue | 10.4% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 13.2% | 14.2% | 14.2% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(USD in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 6,718 | 7,421 | 8,197 | 9,099 | 9,226 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (3,391) | (3,437) | (3,794) | (3,876) | (3,930) | |
EBIT | 3,327 | 3,984 | 4,403 | 5,223 | 5,296 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (865) | (1,036) | (1,145) | (1,358) | (1,377) | |
NOPAT | 2,494 | 2,462 | 2,948 | 3,258 | 3,865 | 3,919 |
Capital Expenditures | (2,683) | (3,438) | (3,876) | (3,801) | (3,250) | (3,250) |
NWC Investment | 355 | 604 | 780 | 629 | 399 | 222 |
(+) D&A | 2,245 | 3,391 | 3,437 | 3,794 | 3,876 | 3,930 |
Free Cash Flow | 2,411 | 3,019 | 3,289 | 3,881 | 4,890 | 4,821 |
% Growth | 25% | 9% | 18% | 26% | -1% |