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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 6.1x - 6.7x | 6.4x |
| Fair Value | A$38.40 - A$41.19 | A$39.75 |
| Upside | 8.9% - 16.8% | 12.7% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (AUD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Jul-24 | Jul-25 | Jul-26 | Jul-27 | Jul-28 | Jul-29 | Jul-30 | Jul-31 | Jul-32 | Jul-33 | Jul-34 |
| Revenue | 1,147 | 1,165 | 1,223 | 1,284 | 1,349 | 1,416 | 1,466 | 1,495 | 1,525 | 1,555 | 1,586 |
| % Growth | -4.4% | 1.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 523 | 594 | 620 | 648 | 678 | 709 | 734 | 748 | 763 | 779 | 794 |
| % of Revenue | 45.6% | 51.0% | 50.7% | 50.5% | 50.3% | 50.1% | 50.1% | 50.1% | 50.1% | 50.1% | 50.1% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Jul-25 | Jul-26 | Jul-27 | Jul-28 | Jul-29 | Jul-30 | Jul-31 | Jul-32 | Jul-33 | Jul-34 | ||
| EBITDA | 594 | 620 | 648 | 678 | 709 | 734 | 748 | 763 | 779 | 794 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (61) | (61) | (61) | (61) | (62) | (64) | (65) | (67) | (68) | (69) | |
| EBIT | 533 | 559 | 587 | 617 | 647 | 670 | 683 | 697 | 711 | 725 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (91) | (95) | (100) | (105) | (110) | (114) | (116) | (118) | (121) | (123) | |
| NOPAT | 398 | 442 | 464 | 487 | 512 | 537 | 556 | 567 | 578 | 590 | 602 |
| Capital Expenditures | (174) | (178) | (183) | (193) | (202) | (212) | (202) | (206) | (207) | (205) | (206) |
| NWC Investment | 19 | (7) | (21) | (22) | (23) | (24) | (18) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) |
| (+) D&A | 43 | 61 | 61 | 61 | 61 | 62 | 64 | 65 | 67 | 68 | 69 |
| Free Cash Flow | 287 | 319 | 321 | 334 | 347 | 362 | 400 | 416 | 427 | 442 | 454 |
| % Growth | 0% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | ||