* Scant chance of Greek default soon, but bigger risk ahead
* Forecasters see 1-in-4 chance of default in next 5 years
* 80 pct chance Greece will access aid deal in next 2 months
* Germany, other euro zone countries unlikely to cause delay
By Andy Bruce
LONDON, April 22 (Reuters) - Greece's euro zone peers will ensure it does not default on a gruelling debt repayment schedule anytime soon, although there is a small but significant risk it could do so in coming years, a Reuters poll showed.
The survey of around 50 economists also gave a median 80 percent chance that Greece would turn to its euro zone partners in the next two months and activate its aid package.
The country has already started talks with European Union and International Monetary Fund officials over the details of a plan that could provide 40-45 billion euros to help manage its way out of its debt crisis.
But looking further ahead, forecasters gave roughly a one-in-four chance that Greece would default on its debt obligations in the next five years.
The survey was taken this week, ahead of European statistics office data on Thursday showing Greece's 2009 deficit was almost 1 percentage point wider than previously reported, and the final gap might turn out to be even wider..
"The chances of Greece being allowed by its euro zone partners to default in the near term are slight," said Stephen Lewis at Monument Securities.
"However, there is a significant risk that the euro arrangements will be modified in the medium term in a way that would constitute a Greek sovereign default event."
Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said on Tuesday there was "no chance" the country would default on its borrowing needs for May, when it must raise around 12.6 billion euros.
The survey produced a 5 percent chance of a default in the next three months, with Greek government debt borrowing costs having reached a 12-year high on Tuesday. They have risen further since.
Long-term solvency, however, is still a hot topic for debate and in this survey respondents gave a wide spread of forecasts, ranging from no chance of default in the next five years to near certainty at 95 percent.
"EU and IMF support would cover all financial needs for the rest of 2010, but only buys time," said Luca Mezzomo of Intesa Sanpaolo.
"Risk of default (is) related to the possible inability of Greece to proceed with fiscal consolidation in 2011-12, and to run a primary balance by 2012."
SLIM CHANCE OF DELAY
All members of the 16-nation euro zone must rubber-stamp any aid package for Greece, some in the face of stiff public opposition -- notably in No. 1 economy Germany.
Still, economists in the poll showed little expectation of Germany or any other euro zone country delaying or blocking aid.
"I'd have to say that a German block is less unlikely than a block from other euro zone country, as German public opinion seems to be well against providing financial support for Greece," said Diego Iscaro from IHS Global Insight.
A leading German parliamentarian of the opposition Social Democrats told Reuters on Wednesday that his party "won't go along" with any attempt from the government to fast-track aid approval through parliament.
Also complicating matters is a German election on May 9, and government approval of a Greek aid package before this date could hurt Chancellor Angela Merkel's centre-right party in the polls.
But given what's at stake, economists in the poll said it was hard to conceive of the aid package not being agreed across the euro zone.
"Germany will probably delay the process but is unlikely to block it when the chips are down," said Monument Securities' Lewis.
(Polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; editing by John Stonestreet)