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UPDATE 2-Exports prop up stumbling German economy in Q4

Published 02/24/2010, 04:25 AM
Updated 02/24/2010, 04:28 AM

* Consumer sentiment to decline for fifth straight month

* Concern over first quarter due to harsh winter

(Adds detail, background)

By Sarah Marsh

BERLIN, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Germany's economic recovery stalled in the fourth quarter of 2009, as weak consumption and a liquidation of inventories offset firmer exports, leaving Europe's largest economy on a weak footing going into 2010.

German gross domestic product (GDP) was unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2009, the Federal Statistics Office said on Wednesday, after expanding in the previous two quarters.

Separately, the GfK market research group said consumer morale is likely to decline going into March as worries over the economy dent income expectations and willingness to spend.

"It looks as if the German economy has fallen into hibernation: stagnating growth in the fourth quarter and yesterday's weakening Ifo index," said Carsten Brzeski, an economist ING Financial Markets.

"However, looks can be deceiving. The underlying trend remains healthy. Demand for German products remains strong."

Germany, which is heavily dependent on foreign trade for growth, was hit especially hard by the global crisis last year, when the economy shrank by a record five percent.

The economy pulled out of a recession in the second quarter of 2009 before stalling in the fourth quarter, and recent forward-looking data indicates the recovery will be rocky.

Data from the Ifo economic think tank on Tuesday showed business sentiment falling for the first time in almost a year in February, suggesting a harsh winter may send Germany sliding back into the red in the first quarter.

"German GDP will probably contract in the first quarter, then we should see a recovery. However, there will be bumps along the way," said WestLB analyst Joerg Lueschow.

Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle said he was not surprised by the fall in German business morale, and that the country still does not have a self-sustaining recovery.

The decline in business sentiment mirrored a drop in German analyst and investor sentiment in February, which came against the backdrop of market jitters about Greece's debt woes and the potential reverberations through the euro zone.

EXPORTS RISE

The GfK drop was the fifth in a row for the indicator, but the fall was slightly above the Reuters consensus forecast.

Private consumption subtracted 0.6 points from GDP in the October-December period, the Statistics Office said, while a liquidation in inventories subtracted 1.2 points.

However, analysts said demand for German products remained strong and the economy could well make up any ground it loses over the winter later this year.

Net trade added two percentage points to GDP in the fourth quarter as imports fell and exports jumped. German exports rose 3.0 percent on the month in December, pushing foreign demand above the year-ago level for the first time in 14 months.

"This is a classic story for the German economy. Final domestic demand remains very weak and it is left to the booming export sector to keep the economy afloat," said Nick Kounis, chief European economist at Fortis Bank.

"This basic picture will remain in place this year, although recent data may over-state the weakness in the economy as activity on the high street and on building sites has probably been depressed by the poor weather."

Year-on-year, the economy shrank by 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter, the data showed, following a 4.7 percent drop in the July-September period, matching preliminary estimates.

Adjusted for working days, German GDP contracted by 2.4 percent on the year in the fourth quarter. (Additional reporting by Dave Graham; Editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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