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UPDATE 1-Russian rouble gains again, nears 14-mth highs

Published 03/25/2010, 11:13 AM
Updated 03/25/2010, 11:24 AM
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* Rouble hits 15-month peak vs euro, nr 14-mth vs basket

* Strong oil sustains rouble's upward trend

* Chance of c.bank rate cuts priced in

(Adds quotes, details, updates prices)

MOSCOW, March 25 (Reuters) - The Russian rouble's rally regained momentum on Thursday, closing in on a 14-month high against the euro-basket, as a recovery in oil prices underpinned upbeat sentiment on the energy-focused economy.

Versus the euro-dollar basket, the rouble was up 15 kopecks on the day at 33.97 , approaching the 14-month peak of 33.93 hit last Friday.

"Oil broke above $80 and that became the key to getting back to the previous rouble dynamic. But the problem of this trend is that it is a satellite of oil movements," said Roman Pakhomenko, dealer at Lanta bank.

Futures for Brent crude oil got back to around $80 per barrel. That ensures that Russia's current account remains firmly in surplus.

According to Goldman Sachs estimates, net private capital inflow picked up to $5.3 billion in the week to March 19, supporting the rouble and boosting Russia's reserves to an almost four month high of $448.2 billion as the central bank intervened regularly to stem rouble gains. [ID:nMOS007540]

The regulator keeps the rouble within a floating trading band and allows it to move gradually, shifting the lower boundary by 5 kopecks after each $700 million of interventions. Since mid-February, the central bank made 22 such steps, bringing the band to 33.90-36.90, dealers say.

The Russian currency is supported by high interest rates that offer a substantial premium on holding assets in roubles compared to dollars and some policy-makers and companies have raised concerns about further gains.

The central bank has cut interest rates steadily since April 2009 and its benchmark refi rate is at a record low of 8.50 percent, but that is still much higher than in the world's major developed economies.

The bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25-50 basis points as soon as on Friday [ID:nLDE62N1BI] but that looks like too little to halt the rise.

"Possible rate cuts this year are priced in 125 times over already. Everyone was waiting for that for a long time," said Alexei Zaytsev, dealer at Unicredit bank in Moscow.

The rouble hit a fresh 15-month high versus the broadly pressured euro at 39.41 -- 20 kopecks firmer on the day. It also managed to win back early losses against the dollar, to close up 9 kopecks at 29.55 .

(Reporting by Andrey Ostroukh; editing by Patrick Graham)

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