LONDON, April 1 (Reuters) - Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week and the Reuters stories related to them.
1/ CENTRAL BANKS DECIDE
Central banks in Japan, the euro zone, Britain and Australia hold policy meetings in the coming week and the minutes of the latest Fed meeting are released. With recent data pointing broadly to a decent pace of economic recovery, markets will be watching keenly for progress towards exiting extraordinary stimulus. The meetings are likely to show how divergent the picture is across developed economies. Australia's Reserve Bank, with an eye not least on rising commodity prices, may hike rates while the Bank of Japan has been under pressure to ease policy further. In the euro zone, despite early steps to normalise money markets, Greece's debt crisis may have pushed rate hikes further into the future. A key to Fed policy, and a big factor for markets in the coming week, will be the U.S. non-farm payrolls data due on April 2. ISM and services PMIs are among the week's big data releases. > List of stories on central banks [ID:nTOPNOW1] > Asian, European manufacturing picks up strongly [ID:nSGE630021] > Australia interest rate rise seen on [ID:nSGE62U1QC]
2/ FESTERING SOVEREIGN RISKS
While monetary policy decisions and economic data are likely to move to the forefront of investors' minds after the Easter break, a planned strike by Greek civil servants to protest austerity measures will ensure sovereign risks stay on investors' radar going into the second quarter. This could renew pressure on the euro and keep Greece and other fiscally weak euro zone countries' borrowing costs high. Greek and other euro zone peripheral bond yield spreads over German benchmarks have rewidened after lacklustre Greek bond sales and further pressure could complicate the debt-stricken government's plans to sell bonds to the United States and Asia to diversify its investor base beyond Europe. > Euro zone debt crisis in graphics http://r.reuters.com/fyw72j > PIMCO dismisses Greece action; sees UK downgrade [ID:nTOE63006M] > Euro sovereigns turn to dollar debt to cut costs [ID:nLDE6300AA]
3/ UK ELECTION JITTERS
The latest monetary policy decision due on Thursday from the Bank of England -- where no change is expected -- is unlikely to shift investor focus away from the upcoming general election with Prime Minister Gordon Brown possibly calling the vote on Tuesday. Sterling has been pushed hither and thither as opinion polls have tracked the fortunes of the main parties or the likelihood of an inconclusive result. Ratings agencies are suspending judgment on Britain's triple-A rating until after the vote, when tough decisions on tackling a budget deficit heading for 12 percent of GDP will be announced. Some in the market say a move higher in premiums investors demand on UK gilts rather than on debt issued by top-rated UK banks is partly due to rising concern about the UK's fiscal health but political jitters also play a part. Investors will be watching to see if, like their U.S. counterparts, UK swap spreads flip back, or whether this negative spread will be an enduring feature that will keep UK public debt costs higher versus its G7 peers. > BoE rate hike seen in Q4 but vulnerable to delay [ID:nLAG006201] > UK data weekahead: BoE, services PMI, manufacuring[ID:nLDE6301FF] > UK hung parliament risk up, Clarke favoured finmin [ID:nLDE62T1XN]
4/ CHINA REVALUATION TENSIONS ON THE RISE
China-U.S. tensions over the yuan currency before a U.S. Treasury report on whether China is a currency manipulator, due on April 15, may rattle investors in the coming week. While many economists say political pressure to revalue the yuan will fail and could backfire, a robust recovery gives Beijing valid domestic reasons to let the yuan rise if it wants to prevent runaway inflation. China's central bank has reaffirmed its appropriately loose monetary stance even as economic data suggests the world's third largest economy is maintaining recovery momentum. The dollar is likely to be the biggest loser if the yuan is allowed to rise, as Beijing is expected to reduce its purchase of U.S. Treasuries when China's $2.4 billion foreign reserves decrease. Commodity currencies and related stocks might also come under pressure as an economic slowdown gives China less impetus to buy natural resources. > For analysis on China and possible yuan move [ID:nTOE62T067] > Key political risks to watch in China [ID:nRISKCN] > China cbank keeps loose policy, stresses flexibility [ID:nTOE62U078]
5/ LOOKING FOR THE NEXT IMPETUS
World equities, rallying 80 percent from their lows of early March 2009, have reached a critical juncture after showing signs of fatigue. However, it is likely that investors are hugging the sidelines ahead of the first quarter earnings season, which will kick off in the United States the week after next. Some may argue tthe market is setting itself up for disappointment with high expectations for European corporate earnings as the beats-and-misses in the last quarter were almost evenly split, but a weaker euro and sterling, as well as the lag in economic recovery relative to the United States, are likely to boost the bottom line in European companies in the first quarter and fuel European equities. > Weekahead: A new quarter of caution and risk [ID:nLDE6300LX] > European shares set for a catch up [ID:nLDE62T17F]
The weekly item on key financial market themes for next week can be retrieved by using MKT/THEMES code on a news search.
(Complied by Nigel Stephenson, editing by Ron Askew)