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FOREX-Dollar dips; U.S. data, SNB decision eyed

Published 06/18/2009, 03:23 AM
Updated 06/18/2009, 03:24 AM
TGT
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* Dlr dips after S&P downgrade on U.S. banks, inflation data

* U.S. jobless claims, Philly Fed data awaited

* Focus on SNB decision at 0730 GMT; Euro up vs Swiss franc

(Updates prices, changes byline, dateline; previous TOKYO)

By Jessica Mortimer

LONDON, June 18 (Reuters) - The dollar edged lower against the euro on Thursday, awaiting U.S. data later in the day, with the focus for now on a policy decision by the Swiss National Bank.

The dollar remained on the weak side after subdued U.S. inflation data the previous day dampened speculation of a U.S. interest rate hike by the end of the year.

Sentiment was also dampened by Standard & Poor's announcement it was lowering its credit rating on 18 U.S. banks on Wednesday, saying increased regulation and market volatility would hurt the sector.

This came on the day President Barack Obama laid out his vision for an overhaul of U.S. financial regulation.

Markets were looking ahead to U.S. jobless claims at 1230 GMT and the Philadelphia Fed index at 1400 GMT, but before that all eyes are likely to be on the SNB decision at 0730 GMT.

The euro edged higher against the Swiss franc, with traders wary of the possibility of intervention to weaken the currency in order to stave off the risk of deflation.

"The threat of intervention is fairly strong and I would expect the Swiss franc to trade higher ahead of the decision," Frankfurt-based Commerzbank analyst Lutz Karpowitz said.

"If the SNB fuel expectations that intervention might be off the table then euro/Swiss franc will trade much lower," he added.

On other major currencies, he said traders were inclined to push the euro towards the $1.40 level against the dollar, but gains were likely to be limited as market players looked ahead to the U.S. data releases.

At 0650 GMT, the dollar fell 0.1 percent on its trade-weighted index to 80.173, while the euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.3972.

The common currency was close to the previous day's high of $1.3986 on trading platform EBS and above a one-month low of $1.3748 touched on Tuesday.

Analysts said many investors were starting to look ahead to a Federal Reserve policy meeting, which starts on Tuesday, with the ensuing reaction in U.S. long-term yields seen as key to the near-term direction of the dollar

"The Fed probably has to mention the recovery in the economy, but that in turn would make it tough not to push U.S. long-term yields higher," said Etsuko Yamashita, chief economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Bank in Tokyo.

Elsewhere, the euro rose 0.2 percent against the Swiss franc to 1.5082 ahead of the SNB decision.

The SNB is expected to leave interest rates at current ultra-low levels until late next year, keep up purchases of corporate bonds and intervene if necessary to stem any rise in the Swiss franc.

At its previous meeting on March 12, the SNB stunned markets by intervening in the currency market to sell the Swiss franc as a means to ward off deflationary risks.

That was announced with a decision to cut the central bank's key rate target to 0.25 percent and a pledge to buy corporate bonds to boost liquidity.

(Reporting by Jessica Mortimer; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

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