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UPDATE 2-Portugal PM: export growth can ease austerity pain

Published 02/08/2011, 08:02 AM

* Says budget consolidation priority, but growth also needed

* Exports can offset impact of deficit-reduction programme

* 2010 exports rose 15.7 pct, expected to add 7 pct in 2011

(Adds trade data for 2010, economy minister)

By Shrikesh Laxmidas and Sergio Goncalves

SANTA MARIA DA FEIRA, Portugal, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Portugal is pinning its growth hopes on a further rise in exports, its prime minister said, looking to ease market concerns the government's austerity programme could trigger another recession.

"Exports is an area where we can fight for economic growth in 2011 and compensate for the recessive effect that the budget austerity measures inevitably have on the economy," Jose Socrates told a congress of exporters on Tuesday.

Exports soared by 15.7 percent last year, the National Statistics Institute said, and Economy Minister Jose Vieira da Silva said Portugal's foreign trade had bounced back fully from a slump caused by the global financial crisis in 2009.

According to the 2011 budget, the government expects exports to grow 7.3 percent this year.

Socrates said the government's priorities for 2011 were to cut the budget deficit to 4.6 percent of gross domestic product from around 7 percent in 2010, as well as maintain economic growth after last year's estimated 1.3 percent expansion.

Slashing the deficit is vital to convincing investors Portugal can solve its public finance and debt problems on its own without seeking a bailout as Ireland and Greece did.

But many economists expect Portugal to slide back into recession this year as the tax hikes and public sector wage cuts imposed by the government reduce consumption.

"In 2011 Portugal will make one of the deepest and most ambitious budget adjustments ... needed to guarantee the international credibility of our economy, guarantee financing of our economy and its growth," Socrates said.

Meanwhile, the government was contributing to export growth by cutting red tape, promoting Portuguese goods abroad and providing incentives and financing, he said, but stopped short of announcing any concrete new measures.

"We want to show that the state is on the side of the exporting companies, that the country understands that this is the top priority," he said.

The government is banking on continued export growth, especially to new markets in fast-growing emerging economies, to eke out GDP expansion of 0.2 percent this year.

Analysts say exports surprised on the positive side last year and should continue rising. However, they warn that export diversification will take time to bear fruit, while Portugal's main trading partner and neighbour Spain is itself implementing tough austerity.

Last year the economy grew an estimated 1.3 percent after shrinking 2.6 percent the previous year, and any new recession would make planned budget deficit cuts more difficult.

Economy Minister Vieira da Silva said Portugal "was one of the countries that have recovered the fastest from the very strong fall in exports at the peak of the recession in 2009."

He said the country has diversified the range of products it sells abroad and the markets it sells to, though boosting exports further presented a key challenge.

"It is ... probably the main structural challenge of our economy," he said.

Despite its strong exports growth last year, Portugal's trade deficit still widened about 2 percent, largely due to the rising cost of oil and fuel imports.

(Writing by Andrei Khalip; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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