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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: October 17-21

Published 10/16/2011, 06:24 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar ended the week higher against the yen on Friday, after Japanese government officials said they would take new steps against the strong yen, in the coming days.

USD/JPY hit 77.48 on Wednesday, the pair's highest since September 12; the pair subsequently consolidated at 77.18 by close of trade on Friday, gaining 0.53% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 76.30, last Wednesday's low and resistance at 77.85, the high of September 9.

The measures to weaken the yen may include more funding to encourage Japanese firms to acquire overseas businesses and natural resources but are not believed to include a tax on currency transactions.

Demand for the safe haven yen was also hit after G-20 and International Monetary Fund officials said that European finance ministers are working on a plan to contain the debt crisis in the euro zone, which could be completed by the next European Union summit on October 23.

Elsewhere, official data showed that U.S. retail sales rebounded in September, increasing at the fastest rate in seven months.

The Commerce Department said sales rose 1.1% last month, after a revised 0.3% increase in August, outstripping expectations for a 0.5% gain.

The greenback rallied to a one-month high on Wednesday after officials from the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank said Greece was likely to receive its next bailout package next month.

In the week ahead, investors will be closely watching for signs of Japanese intervention, while signs of progress in resolving the euro zone's debt crisis look likely to continue to support risk appetite.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish a string of economic data, with reports on manufacturing, housing and inflation to come.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 17

The U.S. is to publish government data on industrial production and the capacity utilization rate. The country is also to publish data on manufacturing activity in New York state, a leading indicator of economic health.

Japan is to release revised data on industrial production.

Tuesday, October 18

The U.S. is to produce government data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation, as well as data on the balance of domestic and foreign investment in the U.S.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak in Boston; his remarks will be closely watched for any clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Wednesday, October 19

The U.S. is to release a flurry of data, with a government report on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity as well as data on housing starts, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is also to publish data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. In addition, the country is to publish data on crude oil stockpiles, while the Fed is to publish its Beige Book, which looks at current economic conditions.

Thursday, October 20

The U.S. is to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as data on manufacturing activity in Philadelphia and an industry report on existing home sales.

Friday, October 21


In Japan, Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa is to speak at an event in Tokyo; his comments will be closely watched for clues regarding future monetary policy.

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