- Stalwart bulls on long-dated Treasurys for as long as we can remember, Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt haven't had their faith shaken by the past month's 30 basis point rise in the 10-year Treasury yield.
- "The worst economic recovery of the post-war period will continue to be restrained by a consumer sector burdened by paltry income growth, a low and falling saving rate and an increasingly restrictive Federal Reserve policy," they say.
- Further, the government's deteriorating fiscal condition means any debt-financed tax changes won't likely benefit the economy.
- Nobody talks about the money supply anymore, but the two note a sharp slowdown in M2 growth this year, and they expect negative growth in 2018 if the Fed continues down its tightening path.
- Long-term yields are headed lower.
- ETFs: TLT, TBT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, VGLT, TLH, UBT, TLO, DLBS, VUSTX, TYBS, DLBL
- Now read: Betting Against The Consensus
Original article