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Natural gas futures - weekly outlook: March 28 - April 1

Published 03/27/2016, 07:49 AM
© Reuters.  U.S. natural gas futures end the week down 5.3%
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Investing.com - Natural gas futures bounced off a two-week low on Thursday, after data showed U.S. supplies in storage rose less than expected last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for delivery in April tacked on 1.2 cents, or 0.67, to close the holiday-shortened week at $1.806 per million British thermal units. Futures fell to a two-week low of $1.772 earlier in the session.

The Nymex energy market remained closed Friday in observance of the Good Friday holiday.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 15 billion cubic feet last week, below expectations for an increase of 20 billion.

That compared with a draw of 1 billion cubic feet in the prior week and a five-year average decline of around 24 billion for this time of year.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.493 trillion cubic feet, 40.8% higher than levels at this time a year ago and 34.0% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Some market experts worry that stockpiles at the end of March will hit at an all-time high of around 2.5 trillion cubic feet, topping the end-of-withdrawal-season high of 2.369 set in 2012.

For the week, natural gas futures tumbled 10.1 cents, or 5.3%, halting a two-week win streak, as updated weather forecasting models pointed to spring-like temperatures across most parts of the U.S. in the weeks ahead.

Natural gas prices have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting outlooks on late-winter heating demand.

Gas use typically hits a seasonal low with spring's mild temperatures, before warmer weather increases demand for gas-fired electricity generation to power air conditioning.

In the week ahead, market players will be focusing on weekly U.S. storage data on Thursday for fresh supply-and-demand signals. Some analysts believe this week’s report will show another increase in supplies, signaling an unusually early end to the winter heating season.

The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. However, a warmer-than-normal winter due to the El Niño weather pattern has limited the amount of heating days and reduced demand for the fuel.

Natural gas futures are down nearly 22% so far this year as weak winter heating demand, near-record production and record-high storage levels dragged down prices.

Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for May delivery settled at $39.46 a barrel by close of trade on Thursday, down $2.17, or 5.21%, on the week, while heating oil for April delivery slumped 3.32% on the week to settle at $1.197 per gallon.

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