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Crude oil futures - Weekly outlook: January 28 - February 1

Published 01/27/2013, 07:30 AM
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Investing.com - Crude oil futures were little changed on Friday, as investors were hesitant to extend a strong rally that took prices to a four-month high earlier in the week on the back of growing optimism over the health of the global economy.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in March eased up 0.1% Friday to settle the week at USD96.03 a barrel by close of trade.

On the week, New York-traded oil futures declined 0.8%, the first weekly loss in seven weeks.

Oil prices rallied to USD96.90 a barrel on Wednesday, the strongest level since September 18.  

Oil prices continued to draw support from upbeat global economic data. On Thursday, HSBC said that its China Flash Purchasing Managers Index rose to a 24-month high of 51.9 in December from a final reading of 51.5 in November.

The upbeat data added to the view that China’s economy is gaining momentum. The Asian nation is the world's second largest oil consumer after the U.S. and has been the engine of strengthening demand.

In the U.S., data on Thursday showed that U.S. jobless claims fell to a five-year low of 330,000 people last week.

Oil traders have been paying close attention to readings on U.S. employment levels because they offer insight into the economic health of the world's largest crude oil consumer.

Meanwhile, in the euro zone, a report Friday showed that Germany’s Ifo index of business confidence improved to a seven-month high of 104.2 this month from 102.4 in December, compared to expectations for a reading of 103.

Also Friday, the European Central Bank said 278 euro zone banks are to repay EUR137.2 billion in central bank loans next week, indicating that liquidity pressure in the bloc has eased.

The ECB made the three-year loans available to banks last year to increase liquidity levels to combat the debt crisis.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, fell 0.3% on Friday to settle the week at 79.81, the lowest level since January 18.

Oil prices typically strengthen when the U.S. currency weakens as the dollar-priced commodity becomes cheaper for holders of other currencies.

In the week ahead, oil traders will be anticipating Wednesday’s preliminary data on U.S. fourth quarter economic growth, as well as Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, as markets attempt to gauge the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

Market players will also be eyeing the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting meeting on Wednesday, for further hints on the future of its ultra-loose monetary policy.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for March delivery rose 0.15% Friday to settle the week at USD113.46 a barrel, the strongest level since October 17.

The London-traded Brent contract added 1.45% over the week, while the spread between the Brent and the crude contracts stood at USD17.43 a barrel.

Brent prices drew support from ongoing geopolitical tension in Libya and Algeria. Fears of an attack on oil assets in Libya have escalated in recent weeks, with the OPEC member boosting security at some oil facilities along the Tunisian, Algerian and Niger borders.

Libya is home to Africa’s largest oil reserves, while Algeria and Nigeria are both major suppliers of high quality sweet crude oil.

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