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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: September 3 - 7

Published 09/02/2012, 10:34 AM
EUR/USD
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Investing.com - The euro ended the week higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as expectations for fresh stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve weighed broadly on the greenback, while hopes for action by the European Central Bank boosted demand for the single currency.

EUR/USD hit 1.2636 on Friday, the pair’s highest since July 2; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2576 by close of trade on Friday, rising 0.51% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.2464, the low of August 28 and resistance at 1.2679, the high of July 2.

The euro rallied to a two-month high against the greenback on Friday, after Fed Chairman Bernanke said the persistently high rate of unemployment was a “grave concern”.

Speaking at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, he reiterated that the central bank was ready to provide additional policy accommodation as needed to shore up growth.

Official data on Wednesday showed that the U.S. economy expanded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.7% in the three months to June, slightly higher than the preliminary estimate of 1.5%, but remained below the 2-2.5% rate required every quarter to hold the unemployment rate steady.

Bernanke downplayed the risks of quantitative easing and said the program had been effective in providing “meaningful support" to the recovery.

Meanwhile, the single currency also remained supported by expectations that the ECB is working on measures to help stabilize the euro zone's sovereign debt markets ahead of its upcoming meeting on September 6.

Italy saw borrowing costs ease at an auction of five and 10-year bonds on Thursday, reflecting renewed optimism that European leaders are making progress in tackling the region’s debt crisis.

On Friday, official data showed that the unemployment rate in the euro zone remained unchanged at 11.3% in July, in line with expectations.

Separately, a preliminary report showed that consumer price inflation in the single currency bloc rose to 2.6% in August from 2.4% the previous month, higher than the expected 2.5%.

In the week ahead, markets will be focusing on the ECB’s post-policy meeting press conference on Thursday, as investors await more details about the size and scope of the bank’s bond purchasing program from President Mario Draghi.

The U.S. is to release its monthly report on non-farm payrolls on Friday, which will allow investors to gauge the strength of the faltering labor market.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 3

In the euro zone, ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to testify before the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, in Brussels. Meanwhile, Spain and Italy are to release official data on manufacturing activity.

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Labor Day holiday.

Tuesday, September 4

The U.S. is to publish a report by the Institute for Supply Management on manufacturing PMI.

Wednesday, September 5

The euro zone is to publish official data on retail sales.
Later in the day, the U.S. is to produce revised data on nonfarm productivity.

Thursday, September 6

In the euro zone, the ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with bank head Mario Draghi, which will be closely watched for details of the bank’s bond purchasing program.

The U.S. is to produce industry data on non-farm employment change, followed by weekly government data on unemployment claims. The country is also to release a report by the Institute for Supply Management on non-manufacturing activity, as well as government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Friday, September 7

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish official data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to round up the week with closely watched official data on non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate, as well as a report on average hourly earnings.


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