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Grain futures - Weekly outlook: November 14-18

Published 11/13/2011, 09:18 AM
Investing.com – U.S. corn and wheat futures slumped on Friday as weak U.S. grain export data weighed on prices, while soybean futures edged higher after prices fell to a five-week low. 

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, corn futures for December delivery traded at USD6.3962 per bushel by close of trade on Friday, dropping 1.9% over the week. Earlier Friday, prices fell to as low as USD6.3625 a bushel, the lowest since November 1.

Agricultural commodities shrugged off a weaker U.S. dollar and positive developments surrounding the euro zone’s debt crisis on Friday, instead focusing on market fundamentals.

Corn prices came under pressure after the U.S. Department of Agriculture said that corn exports inspected at U.S. ports in the week ended November 3 totaled 251,858 tons, down 56% from a year earlier.

Despite the drop, Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs raised its three-month average corn price forecast to USD6.8500 a bushel on Friday, up from a previous estimate of USD6.1500 a bushel, citing tightening U.S. supplies and higher feed demand.

On Wednesday, the USDA cut its forecast for U.S. inventories for the end of the 2011-12 marketing season to 843 million bushels, 2.7% below October’s estimate of 866 million. Historically, any inventory forecast under one billion bushels is viewed as tight.

Elsewhere on the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat for December delivery slumped 2.75% over the week to settle at USD6.1750 a bushel on Friday. Wheat prices fell to as low as USD6.0925 a bushel, the lowest since October 13. 

U.S. wheat exports totaled 298,400 tonnes in the preceding week, down 7% from a week earlier and significantly below expectations of 450,000 tonnes.

Confirmation that Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat importer, bought 240,000 tonnes of Ukrainian and Russian wheat on Thursday also weighed.

On Wednesday, the USDA raised its forecast for global wheat inventories by 0.1% from a month ago as producers in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe boost output.

Goldman lifted its three-month wheat price forecast to USD7.1000 a bushel. "Stronger wheat feed demand in coming quarters could bring wheat prices back to trading at parity with corn prices by next summer," the bank said in a report.

Meanwhile, soybeans for January delivery retreated 4.05% on the week to settle at USD11.7638 a bushel by close of trade Friday. Prices fell to as low as USD11.5725 a bushel, the lowest since October 7. 

USDA data showed that soybeans inspected for delivery at U.S. ports last week totaled 606,800 tons, down 30% from last year as U.S. supplies face increasing competition from Brazil and Argentina, the world’s second and third largest soy exporters.   

Goldman Sachs lowered its estimate for average soybean prices to USD12.2000 a bushel, down 3.2% from a previous projection, citing "improving prospects" in South America.

Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at USD66.7 billion in 2010, followed by soybeans at USD38.9 billion, government figures show. Wheat was fourth at USD13 billion, behind hay.


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